เหตุการณ์ใน-นอกโลก VS ภัยธรรมชาติ และupdate พายุสุริยะ

<table style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(204, 255, 204); " width="100%" bgcolor="#CCFFCC" border="0" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0" cols="0"><tbody><tr><td rowspan="1" colspan="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 10pt; text-align: right; " align="right">January 18, 2012
</td></tr></tbody></table><table style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(204, 255, 204); margin-bottom: 5px; display: table; " width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0" height="375"><tbody><tr style="text-align: center; " align="center"><td rowspan="1" colspan="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(153, 153, 0); color: rgb(242, 238, 121); text-align: center; font-size: 18pt; " width="99%" align="center" bgcolor="#999900">Solar Activities Affect On Weather

</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="1" colspan="2" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; text-align: left; " align="left">by Mitch Battros - Earth Changes Media

Over the last five days, solar activity has been increasing with ebbs and flow of C-class and M-class flares. In addition, CMEs (coronal mass ejections) have spun off these events of which some have been Earth directed.
​

​

​

​

At present, several large solar filaments are approaching the Sun's central meridian. If any of them erupts, the resulting CME (coronal mass ejection) may be Earth directed.

The Earth is currently inside a moderate solar wind flow (approx. 400 km/s) with interplanetary magnetic field magnitudes. At this time, geomagnetic conditions appear stabilized.

Equation:
Sunspots => Solar Flares (charged particles) => Magnetic Field Shift => Shifting Ocean and Jet Stream Currents => Extreme Weather and Human Disruption (mitch battros 1998).
​

​

​

​

Sunspot regions 1401 and 1402 have beta-gamma configuration of their photospheric magnetic field. However, during the past 24 hours their configuration has gradually reduced, resulting only in five C-class flares. Most likely flaring activity will remain at C-class, with possible M-class flare eruptions.
​

__________________​

​

​

Central U.S. Hit By Rare Winter Tornadoes

Storms in four central states brought reports of at least 10 tornadoes touching down, a rare event for this time of winter, including two in the Louisville, Kentucky metropolitan area reported by the National Weather Service.

​

​

​

Another tornado touched down south of Nashville, Tennessee, and two others were reported in Mississippi along with reports of damage from high winds and hail, meteorologists said.

FULL ARTICLE - http://bit.ly/y3tg2b
​

__________________​

​

​

Washington State Walloped By Freak Snow Storm

Schools were closed across Washington State today as a freak snow storm knocked out power and blocked major roads.
​

​

​

​

The state capital of Olympia got 12 inches of snow in a matter of hours this morning, according to Accuweather meteorologist Dave Samuhel, while Seattle got five inches.

FULL ARTICLE - http://bit.ly/Asji4j​

</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

CHANCE OF AURORAS: NOAA forecasters estimate a 15% to 20% chance of polar geomagnetic storms during the next 24 hours in response to a possible glancing blow from a CME. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras. Aurora alerts: text, voice.

โอกาสที่จะมีออโรร่า: NOAA พยากรณ์ว่าประมาณ 15-20% ที่มีโอกาสจะเกิดออโรร่าที่ทางขั้วโลก ใน 24 ชั่วโมงข้างหน้า เนื่องจาก CME ได้ทำให้สนามแม่เหล็กโลกแปรปรวน

SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids

 

ADVANCING SUNSPOTS: A phalanx of sunspots is turning toward Earth. Their advance is documented in this two-day movie from the Solar Dynamics Observatory:

​

The large one in the middle, AR1401, has a "beta-gamma" magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares. At the moment it is unleashing one such flare every day, such as this flash recorded during the late hours of Jan. 19th. Eruptions from AR1401 will become increasingly geoeffective in the days ahead as the sun's rotation aligns the active region with our planet.​

SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids


จุดดับใหญ่ที่อยู่กลางดวงอาทิตย์ AR1401 (จุดดับ 1401) ที่มีกลุ่มแม่เหล็กเป็น "beta-gamma" ที่มีผลให้เกิดการระเบิดมาเป็น M-Class flare ตอนนี้จุดดับนี้ก็ปล่อย M class มาได้ทุกวัน ดังรูปด้านบนที่ปล่อยมาวันที่ 19 มกราคม และมันจะมีมากขึั้นเมื่อจุดดับนี้มาตรงกับโลกในอีกสองวันข้างหน้า


January 18, 2012

Diagram of the solar flare activity

X-ray emission of the Sun from 17.01.2012 to 18.01.2012 (GOES-15)


Solar flares today

Today, 4 solar flares were observed:

<table class="table_4" width="750" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <th width="1%"> </th> <th width="1%" align="left"> </th> <th>Active region</th> <th>Begin, UT</th> <th>Max, UT</th> <th>End, UT</th> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C1.0</td> <td class="center">1401</td> <td class="center">09:51:00</td> <td class="center">09:54:00</td> <td class="center">09:56:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C2.4</td> <td class="center">1401</td> <td class="center">10:16:00</td> <td class="center">10:30:00</td> <td class="center">10:45:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class M1.7</td> <td class="center">1401</td> <td class="center">19:04:00</td> <td class="center">19:12:00</td> <td class="center">19:27:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C5.1</td> <td class="center">1396</td> <td class="center">22:57:00</td> <td class="center">23:20:00</td> <td class="center">23:33:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
Solar flares yesterday

Yesterday, 4 solar flares were observed:

<table class="table_4" width="750" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr> <th width="1%"> </th> <th width="1%" align="left"> </th> <th>Active region</th> <th>Begin, UT</th> <th>Max, UT</th> <th>End, UT</th> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class M1.0</td> <td class="center">1401</td> <td class="center">04:41:00</td> <td class="center">04:53:00</td> <td class="center">05:07:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C1.4</td> <td class="center">1401</td> <td class="center">17:19:00</td> <td class="center">17:23:00</td> <td class="center">17:25:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C2.2</td> <td class="center">1401</td> <td class="center">18:32:00</td> <td class="center">18:37:00</td> <td class="center">18:40:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C1.0</td> <td class="center">1401</td> <td class="center">23:53:00</td> <td class="center">23:57:00</td> <td class="center">00:03:00</td></tr></tbody></table>

Sunspots and active regions

The following regions with sunspots can be now observed on the Sun's surface
<table class="table_1" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <th width="1%"> Group number </th> <th width="10%"> Sunspots Location on the Sun </th> <th width="11%"> The number of spots in the group </th> <th width="20%"> The classification by the Zurich's modified system </th> <th width="30%"> Area (millions of shares of the solar hemisphere) </th> <th width="9%"> Group length (in degrees) </th> <th width="16%"> Carrington Longitude (in degrees) </th> <th class="last" width="1%"> Group's magnet type </th> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1396 </td> <td> N25 W44 </td> <td class="center"> 04 </td> <td class="center"> Bxo </td> <td class="center"> 0010 </td> <td class="center"> 02 </td> <td class="center"> 285 </td> <td class="center"> Beta </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1399 </td> <td> S23 E17 </td> <td class="center"> 01 </td> <td class="center"> Hsx </td> <td class="center"> 0020 </td> <td class="center"> 01 </td> <td class="center"> 224 </td> <td class="center"> Alpha </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1401 </td> <td> N16 E27 </td> <td class="center"> 18 </td> <td class="center"> Ekc </td> <td class="center"> 0450 </td> <td class="center"> 15 </td> <td class="center"> 214 </td> <td class="center"> Beta-Gamma </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1402 </td> <td> N28 E27 </td> <td class="center"> 08 </td> <td class="center"> Dko </td> <td class="center"> 0550 </td> <td class="center"> 08 </td> <td class="center"> 214 </td> <td class="center"> Beta </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1403 </td> <td> S19 W11 </td> <td class="center"> 05 </td> <td class="center"> Cro </td> <td class="center"> 0020 </td> <td class="center"> 03 </td> <td class="center"> 252 </td> <td class="center"> Beta </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1405 </td> <td> N11 E39 </td> <td class="center"> 02 </td> <td class="center"> Hsx </td> <td class="center"> 0040 </td> <td class="center"> 02 </td> <td class="center"> 202 </td> <td class="center"> Alpha </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1406 </td> <td> S24 W68 </td> <td class="center"> 02 </td> <td class="center"> Cso </td> <td class="center"> 0030 </td> <td class="center"> 04 </td> <td class="center"> 309 </td> <td class="center"> Beta </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1407 </td> <td> N17 E13 </td> <td class="center"> 02 </td> <td class="center"> Bxo </td> <td class="center"> 0010 </td> <td class="center"> 01 </td> <td class="center"> 228 </td> <td class="center"> Beta </td> </tr> </tbody></table> Coordinates and other characteristics of active regions are issued for January 19, 2012 00:31 UT
Daily Sun: 19 Jan 12 <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td></td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td></td> </tr> </tbody></table> Sunspot 1401 poses a threat for M-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

ข้อสังเกต: จุดดับนี้อีกสองวันจะหันมาตรงกับโลก และถ้าจุดดับนี้ Group's magnet type เพิ่มเป็น Beta-Gamma-Delta โอกาสที่จะเกิด X-Class flare (ระเบิดขนาดใหญ่) มีมากและจุดนี้ก็มีพิกัดตรงกับไทย คือ ประมาณภาคเนื้อตอนล่าง กลางตอนบน อีสานตอนกลางๆ คือ latitude 16 องศาเหนือ ซึ่งก็อาจจะเหมือนกับตอนที่เมืองไทยน้ำเยอะๆ ตอนช่วงวันที่ 9,10 กันยายน 11 (ซึ่งเกิดการระเบิด x-class 2 ลูก) ซึ่งน้ำก็จะมาจำนวนมาก ดังตัวอย่างข้างล่างนี้
September 7, 2011

Diagram of the solar flare activity

X-ray emission of the Sun from 06.09.2011 to 07.09.2011 (GOES-15)


Solar flares today

Today, 3 solar flares were observed:

<table class="table_4" width="750" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <th width="1%"> </th> <th width="1%" align="left"> </th> <th>Active region</th> <th>Begin, UT</th> <th>Max, UT</th> <th>End, UT</th> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C3.0</td> <td class="center">0</td> <td class="center">19:55:00</td> <td class="center">20:06:00</td> <td class="center">20:19:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C1.6</td> <td class="center">1283</td> <td class="center">22:13:00</td> <td class="center">22:18:00</td> <td class="center">22:26:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class X1.8</td> <td class="center">1283</td> <td class="center">22:32:00</td> <td class="center">22:38:00</td> <td class="center">22:44:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
Solar flares yesterday

Yesterday, 2 solar flares were observed:

<table class="table_4" width="750" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr> <th width="1%"> </th> <th width="1%" align="left"> </th> <th>Active region</th> <th>Begin, UT</th> <th>Max, UT</th> <th>End, UT</th> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class M5.3</td> <td class="center">1283</td> <td class="center">01:35:00</td> <td class="center">01:50:00</td> <td class="center">02:05:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class X2.1</td> <td class="center">1283</td> <td class="center">22:12:00</td> <td class="center">22:20:00</td> <td class="center">22:24:00</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

ADVANCING SUNSPOTS: A phalanx of sunspots is turning toward Earth. Their advance is documented in this two-day movie from the Solar Dynamics Observatory:

The large one in the middle, AR1401, has a "beta-gamma" magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares. At the moment it is unleashing one such flare every day, such as this flash recorded during the late hours of Jan. 19th. Eruptions from AR1401 will become increasingly geoeffective in the days ahead as the sun's rotation aligns the active region with our planet.​

SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids



จุดดับใหญ่ที่อยู่กลางดวงอาทิตย์ AR1401 (จุดดับ 1401) ที่มีกลุ่มแม่เหล็กเป็น "beta-gamma" ที่มีผลให้เกิดการระเบิดมาเป็น M-Class flare ตอนนี้จุดดับนี้ก็ปล่อย M class มาได้ทุกวัน ดังรูปด้านบนที่ปล่อยมาวันที่ 19 มกราคม และมันจะมีมากขึั้นเมื่อจุดดับนี้มาตรงกับโลกในอีกสองวันข้างหน้า
January 18, 2012 Diagram of the solar flare activity

X-ray emission of the Sun from 17.01.2012 to 18.01.2012 (GOES-15)


Solar flares today

Today, 4 solar flares were observed:

<table class="table_4" width="750" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <th width="1%"> </th> <th width="1%" align="left"> </th> <th>Active region</th> <th>Begin, UT</th> <th>Max, UT</th> <th>End, UT</th> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C1.0</td> <td class="center">1401</td> <td class="center">09:51:00</td> <td class="center">09:54:00</td> <td class="center">09:56:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C2.4</td> <td class="center">1401</td> <td class="center">10:16:00</td> <td class="center">10:30:00</td> <td class="center">10:45:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class M1.7</td> <td class="center">1401</td> <td class="center">19:04:00</td> <td class="center">19:12:00</td> <td class="center">19:27:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C5.1</td> <td class="center">1396</td> <td class="center">22:57:00</td> <td class="center">23:20:00</td> <td class="center">23:33:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
Solar flares yesterday

Yesterday, 4 solar flares were observed:

<table class="table_4" width="750" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr> <th width="1%"> </th> <th width="1%" align="left"> </th> <th>Active region</th> <th>Begin, UT</th> <th>Max, UT</th> <th>End, UT</th> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class M1.0</td> <td class="center">1401</td> <td class="center">04:41:00</td> <td class="center">04:53:00</td> <td class="center">05:07:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C1.4</td> <td class="center">1401</td> <td class="center">17:19:00</td> <td class="center">17:23:00</td> <td class="center">17:25:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C2.2</td> <td class="center">1401</td> <td class="center">18:32:00</td> <td class="center">18:37:00</td> <td class="center">18:40:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C1.0</td> <td class="center">1401</td> <td class="center">23:53:00</td> <td class="center">23:57:00</td> <td class="center">00:03:00</td></tr></tbody></table>

Sunspots and active regions

The following regions with sunspots can be now observed on the Sun's surface
<table class="table_1" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <th width="1%"> Group number </th> <th width="10%"> Sunspots Location on the Sun </th> <th width="11%"> The number of spots in the group </th> <th width="20%"> The classification by the Zurich's modified system </th> <th width="30%"> Area (millions of shares of the solar hemisphere) </th> <th width="9%"> Group length (in degrees) </th> <th width="16%"> Carrington Longitude (in degrees) </th> <th class="last" width="1%"> Group's magnet type </th> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1396 </td> <td> N25 W44 </td> <td class="center"> 04 </td> <td class="center"> Bxo </td> <td class="center"> 0010 </td> <td class="center"> 02 </td> <td class="center"> 285 </td> <td class="center"> Beta </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1399 </td> <td> S23 E17 </td> <td class="center"> 01 </td> <td class="center"> Hsx </td> <td class="center"> 0020 </td> <td class="center"> 01 </td> <td class="center"> 224 </td> <td class="center"> Alpha </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1401 </td> <td> N16 E27 </td> <td class="center"> 18 </td> <td class="center"> Ekc </td> <td class="center"> 0450 </td> <td class="center"> 15 </td> <td class="center"> 214 </td> <td class="center"> Beta-Gamma </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1402 </td> <td> N28 E27 </td> <td class="center"> 08 </td> <td class="center"> Dko </td> <td class="center"> 0550 </td> <td class="center"> 08 </td> <td class="center"> 214 </td> <td class="center"> Beta </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1403 </td> <td> S19 W11 </td> <td class="center"> 05 </td> <td class="center"> Cro </td> <td class="center"> 0020 </td> <td class="center"> 03 </td> <td class="center"> 252 </td> <td class="center"> Beta </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1405 </td> <td> N11 E39 </td> <td class="center"> 02 </td> <td class="center"> Hsx </td> <td class="center"> 0040 </td> <td class="center"> 02 </td> <td class="center"> 202 </td> <td class="center"> Alpha </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1406 </td> <td> S24 W68 </td> <td class="center"> 02 </td> <td class="center"> Cso </td> <td class="center"> 0030 </td> <td class="center"> 04 </td> <td class="center"> 309 </td> <td class="center"> Beta </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1407 </td> <td> N17 E13 </td> <td class="center"> 02 </td> <td class="center"> Bxo </td> <td class="center"> 0010 </td> <td class="center"> 01 </td> <td class="center"> 228 </td> <td class="center"> Beta </td> </tr> </tbody></table> Coordinates and other characteristics of active regions are issued for January 19, 2012 00:31 UT
Daily Sun: 19 Jan 12 <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td></td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td></td> </tr> </tbody></table> Sunspot 1401 poses a threat for M-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

ข้อสังเกต: จุดดับนี้อีกสองวันจะหันมาตรงกับโลก และถ้าจุดดับนี้ Group's magnet type เพิ่มเป็น Beta-Gamma-Delta โอกาสที่จะเกิด X-Class flare (ระเบิดขนาดใหญ่) มีมากและจุดนี้ก็มีพิกัดตรงกับไทย คือ ประมาณภาคเนื้อตอนล่าง กลางตอนบน อีสานตอนกลางๆ คือ latitude 16 องศาเหนือ ซึ่งก็อาจจะเหมือนกับตอนที่เมืองไทยน้ำเยอะๆ ตอนช่วงวันที่ 9,10 กันยายน 11 (ซึ่งเกิดการระเบิด x-class 2 ลูก) ซึ่งน้ำก็จะมาจำนวนมาก ดังตัวอย่างข้างล่างนี้
September 7, 2011

Diagram of the solar flare activity

X-ray emission of the Sun from 06.09.2011 to 07.09.2011 (GOES-15)


Solar flares today

Today, 3 solar flares were observed:

<table class="table_4" width="750" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <th width="1%"> </th> <th width="1%" align="left"> </th> <th>Active region</th> <th>Begin, UT</th> <th>Max, UT</th> <th>End, UT</th> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C3.0</td> <td class="center">0</td> <td class="center">19:55:00</td> <td class="center">20:06:00</td> <td class="center">20:19:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C1.6</td> <td class="center">1283</td> <td class="center">22:13:00</td> <td class="center">22:18:00</td> <td class="center">22:26:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class X1.8</td> <td class="center">1283</td> <td class="center">22:32:00</td> <td class="center">22:38:00</td> <td class="center">22:44:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
Solar flares yesterday

Yesterday, 2 solar flares were observed:

<table class="table_4" width="750" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr> <th width="1%"> </th> <th width="1%" align="left"> </th> <th>Active region</th> <th>Begin, UT</th> <th>Max, UT</th> <th>End, UT</th> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class M5.3</td> <td class="center">1283</td> <td class="center">01:35:00</td> <td class="center">01:50:00</td> <td class="center">02:05:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class X2.1</td> <td class="center">1283</td> <td class="center">22:12:00</td> <td class="center">22:20:00</td> <td class="center">22:24:00</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

INCREASING SOLAR ACTIVITY CLEANS UP SAT-DEBRIS: Earth's atmosphere has been puffing up in response to increasing levels of UV radiation from sunspots. This is good news for satellite operators, because a puffed up atmosphere helps clean up low-Earth orbit. "The number of cataloged debris in Earth orbit actually decreased during 2011," reports Nick Johnson in NASA's Orbital Debris Quarterly newsletter. "[The figure below] illustrates how the rate of debris reentries from the Fengyun-1C anti-satellite test of January 2007 increased during the past year."​

​

"Even though only 6% of the total 3218 cataloged debris from the ill-advised engagement had reentered by the end of 2011, half of these debris fell out of orbit in the past 12 months," he points out. "Likewise, many debris from the 2009 accidental collision of Cosmos 2251 and Iridium 33 are accelerating their departure from Earth orbit. In the absence of a new major satellite breakup, the overall orbital debris population should continue to decrease during 2012 and 2013."

 

<table style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(204, 255, 204); " width="100%" bgcolor="#CCFFCC" border="0" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0" cols="0"><tbody><tr><td rowspan="1" colspan="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 10pt; text-align: right; " align="right">January 19, 2012
</td></tr></tbody></table><table style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(204, 255, 204); margin-bottom: 5px; display: table; " width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0" height="375"><tbody><tr style="text-align: center; " align="center"><td rowspan="1" colspan="1" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(153, 153, 0); color: rgb(242, 238, 121); text-align: center; font-size: 18pt; " width="99%" align="center" bgcolor="#999900">

New M-Class Flare w/ Following CME
​

</td></tr><tr><td rowspan="1" colspan="2" style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; text-align: left; " align="left">by Mitch Battros - Earth Changes Media

Sunspot region 1401 fires off an M3-class flare at approximately 11 AM (PDT). This event produced a CME (coronal mass ejection) which appears to be moving out of the ecliptic plane therefore it may present only a glancing blow to Earth.
​

​

​

​

The CME was associated with the coronal dimming and filament eruption near the solar disk center, and a post-eruption arcade in sunspot region 1399 was observed by (SD) Solar Dynamics Observatory. The STEREO/COR2 satellite indicates that the CME was accelerating and its radial speed reached values around 450 km/s.
​

​

​

​

CME Video - http://bit.ly/yqFqi3​

​

​

This CME is expected to be at most, a glancing blow to Earth on January 21st with possible active to minor geomagnetic storm conditions.​

</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

ลูกใหญ่มาก

January 20, 2012

Diagram of the solar flare activity

X-ray emission of the Sun from 19.01.2012 to 20.01.2012 (GOES-15)


Solar flares today

No solar flares of C, M and X-class were observed today
Solar flares yesterday

Yesterday, 3 solar flares were observed:

<table class="table_4" width="750" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr> <th width="1%"> </th> <th width="1%" align="left"> </th> <th>Active region</th> <th>Begin, UT</th> <th>Max, UT</th> <th>End, UT</th> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C1.2</td> <td class="center">0</td> <td class="center">03:52:00</td> <td class="center">03:55:00</td> <td class="center">03:57:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C3.2</td> <td class="center">1396</td> <td class="center">12:41:00</td> <td class="center">12:50:00</td> <td class="center">13:00:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class M3.2</td> <td class="center">1402</td> <td class="center">13:44:00</td> <td class="center">16:05:00</td> <td class="center">17:50:00</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

EARTH-DIRECTED SOLAR FLARE: Active sunspot 1401 erupted today, Jan. 19th, between 15:15 and 16:30 UT. The long-duration blast produced an M3-class solar flare and a CME that appears to be heading toward Earth. This movie from the Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the extreme UV flash:​

​

NASA's twin STEREO spacecraft recorded an impressive CME emerging from the blast site: movie #1, movie #2. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab confirm that the CME is heading for Earth, and they say strong geomagnetic storms are possible (although not guaranteed) when the cloud arrives this weekend. Their animated forecast track predicts an impact on Jan. 21st at 22:30 UT (+/- 7 hrs). Aurora alerts: text, voice. ​

 

Sunspot 1402 Eruption: A large eruption starting at 14:30 UTC Thursday took place around Sunspot 1402. This long duration event (LDE) peaked at M3.2. A large Two-Wave (CME) was observed in STEREO imagery, a portion of which appears to be Earth directed. The major bulk of the plasma cloud was directed north. Nonetheless, an impact is expected within 48-72 hours. Geomagnetic Storming will be possible once it arrives.
Type II and Type IV Sweep Frequency Events were also detected. A video presentation is listed below. Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest updates.
What is a Sweep Frequency Event? Click HERE


Long Duration Eruption (Thursday) - SDO

Solar Update:
Solar activity continues at moderate levels with an M3.2 solar flare detected Thursday morning around Sunspot 1402. This long duration event produced a bright and partially Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). Geomagnetic storming will be possible within 72 hours. Continue to monitor activity around Sunspots 1401 and 1402, as they may produce further solar flares.
Family of Sunspots (Thursday) - SDO



SOLARHAM.com / SOLARCYCLE 24.com / Solar Cycle 24 / Spaceweather / Amateur Radio VHF Aurora Website / Sunspots / Solar Flares


[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P3n2yZl-nns]M3.2 LDE + CME - SolarHam.com Presentation (Jan 19, 2012) - YouTube[/ame]


วันที่ 19 มกราคม เกิดพายุสุริยะขนาดใหญ่มีทิศทางมาที่โลกโดยตรงซึ่งจะส่งผลกระทบต่อโลกในวัน ที่ 22-25 มกราคม ในรูปแบบของสภาพาอากาศแปรปรวนครั้งใหญ่อีกครั้ง และมีความเสี่ยงต่อการเกิดแผ่นดินไหวขนาดระหว่าง 6 ถึง 7.5 ริตเตอร์


จับตาการเรียงตัวของดาวเคราะห์และภัยพิบัติช่วงวันที่ 17 มกราคม ถึง 18 กุมภาพันธ์ 2012 update 20 มกราค
<table border="1" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" width="200"><tbody><tr><td class="rtecenter"></td> <td class="rtecenter"></td></tr></tbody></table>

 

What Happened to all the Snow?

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2012/17jan_missingsnow/

อะไรเกิขึ้นกับหิมะทั้งหมด?

<table class="table_generic center" summary="media files table" style="vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-size: 13px; outline-width: 0px; outline-style: initial; outline-color: initial; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: auto !important; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 1px; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; float: none; overflow-x: hidden; overflow-y: hidden; border-collapse: collapse; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-right-style: solid; border-right-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-variant: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: -webkit-auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); width: 450px; " border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody style="vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-size: 13px; outline-width: 0px; outline-style: initial; outline-color: initial; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; "><tr style="vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-size: 13px; outline-width: 0px; outline-style: initial; outline-color: initial; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; "><td style="vertical-align: top; font-weight: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-size: 13px; outline-width: 0px; outline-style: initial; outline-color: initial; padding-top: 5px; padding-right: 5px; padding-bottom: 5px; padding-left: 5px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; border-top-width: 1px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 1px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; text-align: center; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); ">[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdUa820fT1g"]Play ScienceCast Video[/ame]</td><td style="vertical-align: top; font-weight: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-size: 13px; outline-width: 0px; outline-style: initial; outline-color: initial; padding-top: 5px; padding-right: 5px; padding-bottom: 5px; padding-left: 5px; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; border-top-width: 1px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 1px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; text-align: center; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-left-style: solid; border-left-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); ">Join Mailing List</td></tr></tbody></table>Jan. 19, 2012: Winter seems to have been on hold this year in some parts of the United States. Snowfall has been scarce so far in places that were overwhelmed with the white stuff by the same time last year.



California dog driver Tony Phillips poses with his new sled near Mammoth Mountain. In winter 2011 this spot was covered by several feet of snow; in 2012 it is bare dirt. [[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdUa820fT1g"]video[/ame]]

Here's a prime example. "The Mammoth Mountain ski resort in the Sierras of California got more than 200 inches of snow last December," says NASA climatologist Bill Patzert of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. "This December they got less than 10 inches." ปีนี้หิมะหนาแค่น้อยกว่า 10 นิ้ว

Temperatures have flip-flopped too. There were 583 new heat records broken in the first five days of January in the US. และอุณหภูมิก็เปลี่ยนไปมา บันทึกไว้ 583 เรคคอร์ด ในห้าวันแรกของมกราคมในอเมริกา

"It's 86 degrees in Los Angeles today [Wednesday, January 4th]," says Patzert. "Everyone thinks it's July! In fact, it's warmer today in LA than it was on July 4th last year. And it's been in the 60s and 70 even in the Dakotas lately."

On January 5th in Bismark, North Dakota, it was 62 -- a marked departure from their average 23 degrees for that day. It was 66 in Denver, Colorado, where it's usually in the low 40s on that date.
What's going on? Patzert identifies two culprits: La Niña and the Arctic Oscillation.

First of all," he explains, "we are experiencing a La Niña pattern of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. This pushes the jet stream and the cold arctic air northward."

"On top of that, this year's Arctic Oscillation has been stronger."

The Arctic Oscillation is a see-sawing pressure difference between the Arctic and lower latitudes. When the pressure difference is high, a whirlpool of air forms around the North Pole. Last year, the whirlpool motion was weaker, allowing cold air to escape from the polar regions and head southward to the US.

"This year the whirlpool has been more forceful, corralling the cold air and keeping it nearer the pole. That has reinforced the La Niña impact."


(left) Effects of the positive phase of the arctic oscillation; (right) effects of the negative phase of the arctic oscillation (Figures courtesy of J. Wallace, University of Washington)

While the corralling action of the Arctic Oscillation has kept snow away from parts of the contiguous United States, it has brought extra snow to places inside the whirlpool.

"The strong positive AO has kept the Jet Stream north," says Patzert. "Snow-delivering storm tracks are pounding Alaska."

Cordova, a small coastal town about 150 miles east of Anchorage, has been especially hard hit. More than 18 feet of snow has fallen so far this winter. Snow dumps are full, roads have turned into one-lane "snow canyons," and National Guardsmen have been sent in to help residents dig out.
Even heartbroken snow-lovers of the lower 48 don't want that much white stuff. But they'd like some.

"Be patient," advises Patzert. "We haven't gotten to the heart of winter. Hold off on selling the new dogsled. There's plenty of time for snow. It ain't over till the Siberian Huskies sing."



So far in the winter of 2011-2012, the "AO Index" has been mostly positive, signaling a strong Arctic Oscillation. "Compare this to last year's negative AO Index and you can see the difference between the two winters," notes Patzert.

Author: Dauna Coulter | Editor: Dr. Tony Phillips | Credit: Science@NASA​

 

Sunspots and active regions

The following regions with sunspots can be now observed on the Sun's surface
<table class="table_1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <th width="1%"> Group number </th> <th width="10%"> Sunspots Location on the Sun </th> <th width="11%"> The number of spots in the group </th> <th width="20%"> The classification by the Zurich's modified system </th> <th width="30%"> Area (millions of shares of the solar hemisphere) </th> <th width="9%"> Group length (in degrees) </th> <th width="16%"> Carrington Longitude (in degrees) </th> <th class="last" width="1%"> Group's magnet type </th> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1396 </td> <td> N25 W44 </td> <td class="center"> 04 </td> <td class="center"> Bxo </td> <td class="center"> 0010 </td> <td class="center"> 02 </td> <td class="center"> 285 </td> <td class="center"> Beta </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1399 </td> <td> S23 E17 </td> <td class="center"> 01 </td> <td class="center"> Hsx </td> <td class="center"> 0020 </td> <td class="center"> 01 </td> <td class="center"> 224 </td> <td class="center"> Alpha </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1401 </td> <td> N16 E27 </td> <td class="center"> 18 </td> <td class="center"> Ekc </td> <td class="center"> 0450 </td> <td class="center"> 15 </td> <td class="center"> 214 </td> <td class="center"> Beta-Gamma </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1402 </td> <td> N28 E27 </td> <td class="center"> 08 </td> <td class="center"> Dko </td> <td class="center"> 0550 </td> <td class="center"> 08 </td> <td class="center"> 214 </td> <td class="center"> Beta </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1403 </td> <td> S19 W11 </td> <td class="center"> 05 </td> <td class="center"> Cro </td> <td class="center"> 0020 </td> <td class="center"> 03 </td> <td class="center"> 252 </td> <td class="center"> Beta </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1405 </td> <td> N11 E39 </td> <td class="center"> 02 </td> <td class="center"> Hsx </td> <td class="center"> 0040 </td> <td class="center"> 02 </td> <td class="center"> 202 </td> <td class="center"> Alpha </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1406 </td> <td> S24 W68 </td> <td class="center"> 02 </td> <td class="center"> Cso </td> <td class="center"> 0030 </td> <td class="center"> 04 </td> <td class="center"> 309 </td> <td class="center"> Beta </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1407 </td> <td> N17 E13 </td> <td class="center"> 02 </td> <td class="center"> Bxo </td> <td class="center"> 0010 </td> <td class="center"> 01 </td> <td class="center"> 228 </td> <td class="center"> Beta </td> </tr> </tbody></table> Coordinates and other characteristics of active regions are issued for January 19, 2012 00:31 UT

 

ต้องใช้ความสังเกตเอา หรือ ใครจะทำการคำนวณดูก็ได้
มันต้องใช้เวลา แต่ก็พอสังเกตได้

มาลองเดากันสิว่าจะเกิดที่ไหน?

ประเดิมก่อนนะ
เอเชีย(อากาศ)
พายุ - อาจเกิดแถวแปซิฟิก ประมาณใต้ญี่ปุ่นเหนือใต้หวัน
จีน - ตอนกลางประเทศอาจมีหิมะตก

แผ่นดินไหว
ทวีปอเมริกาใต้ - อาจมีแผ่นดินไหวแรงๆ
ญี่ปุ่น ใต้หวัน ออสเตรเลีย ตองก้า - มีโอกาสเสี่ยงแผ่นดินไหว

อิอิ ล้วนเป็นการเดาเอาทั้งสิ้น :boo:

ลองมาคาดกันว่ามันจะเกิดตรงไหน...

 

INCOMING CME: Active sunspot 1401 erupted yesterday, Jan. 19th around 16:30 UT, producing an M3-class solar flare and a full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME). The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory recorded the cloud expanding almost directly toward Earth:​

​

​

​

Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives this weekend. Their animated forecast track predicts an impact on Jan. 21st at 22:30 UT (+/- 7 hrs). Aurora alerts: text, voice.


คาดว่า CME ที่เกิดจากการระเบิดวันที่ 19 จะมาถึงประมาณวันเสาร์ที่ 21 มกราคม 22.30 UT (ประมาณอาทิตย์ที่ 22 มกรา ตีห้าครึ่งบ้านเรา)
SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids​

 

สงสัยจัง ทำไม space weather บอกว่าเกิดจากจุดดับ 1401 แต่ทื่อื่นๆ บอกว่าเกิดจาก 1402?

January 19, 2012

Diagram of the solar flare activity

X-ray emission of the Sun from 18.01.2012 to 19.01.2012 (GOES-15)


Solar flares today

Today, 3 solar flares were observed:

<table class="table_4" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="750"><tbody><tr><th width="1%">
</th><th width="1%" align="left">
</th><th>Active region</th><th>Begin, UT</th><th>Max, UT</th><th>End, UT</th></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap"></td><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Flare of class C1.2</td><td class="center">0</td><td class="center">03:52:00</td><td class="center">03:55:00</td><td class="center">03:57:00</td></tr><tr><td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap"></td><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Flare of class C3.2</td><td class="center">1396</td><td class="center">12:41:00</td><td class="center">12:50:00</td><td class="center">13:00:00</td></tr><tr><td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap"></td><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Flare of class M3.2</td><td class="center">1402</td><td class="center">13:44:00</td><td class="center">16:05:00</td><td class="center">17:50:00</td></tr><tr><td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td></tr></tbody></table>
Solar flares yesterday

Yesterday, 4 solar flares were observed:

<table class="table_4" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="750"><tbody><tr><th width="1%">
</th><th width="1%" align="left">
</th><th>Active region</th><th>Begin, UT</th><th>Max, UT</th><th>End, UT</th></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap"></td><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Flare of class C1.0</td><td class="center">1401</td><td class="center">09:51:00</td><td class="center">09:54:00</td><td class="center">09:56:00</td></tr><tr><td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap"></td><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Flare of class C2.4</td><td class="center">1401</td><td class="center">10:16:00</td><td class="center">10:30:00</td><td class="center">10:45:00</td></tr><tr><td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap"></td><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Flare of class M1.7</td><td class="center">1401</td><td class="center">19:04:00</td><td class="center">19:12:00</td><td class="center">19:27:00</td></tr><tr><td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td></tr><tr><td nowrap="nowrap"></td><td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Flare of class C5.1</td><td class="center">1396</td><td class="center">22:57:00</td><td class="center">23:20:00</td><td class="center">23:33:00</td></tr></tbody></table>
#-----------------------------<wbr style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: -webkit-auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); ">---------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
A full halo CME was detected by SOHO/LASCO on January 19. It first
appeared in the LASCO C2 field of view at 15:24 UT and moved at the
plnae-of-the-sky speed around 1300 km/s. The CME was associated with
coronal dimmings, filament eruption and a post-eruption arcade in and
around Catania sunspot group 21 (NOAA AR 1402), as observed by SDO/AIA
starting around 13:58 UT. An M3.2 flare peaking at 16:05 UT associated
with this eruption was detected by GOES. SOHO/LASCO and STEREO/SECCHI
COR2 beacon data indicate that the bulk of the CME material is moving
northward of the ecliptic plane. We expect a glancing blow from this CME
at the Earth late on January 21 - early on January 22, possibly
resulting in minor to moderate geomagnetic storm conditions.<wbr style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: -webkit-auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); "><wbr style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: -webkit-auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); "><wbr style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: -webkit-auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); ">


Sunspots and active regions

The following regions with sunspots can be now observed on the Sun's surface
<table class="table_1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <th width="1%"> Group number </th> <th width="10%"> Sunspots Location on the Sun </th> <th width="11%"> The number of spots in the group </th> <th width="20%"> The classification by the Zurich's modified system </th> <th width="30%"> Area (millions of shares of the solar hemisphere) </th> <th width="9%"> Group length (in degrees) </th> <th width="16%"> Carrington Longitude (in degrees) </th> <th class="last" width="1%"> Group's magnet type </th> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1396 </td> <td> N25 W44 </td> <td class="center"> 04 </td> <td class="center"> Bxo </td> <td class="center"> 0010 </td> <td class="center"> 02 </td> <td class="center"> 285 </td> <td class="center"> Beta </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1399 </td> <td> S23 E17 </td> <td class="center"> 01 </td> <td class="center"> Hsx </td> <td class="center"> 0020 </td> <td class="center"> 01 </td> <td class="center"> 224 </td> <td class="center"> Alpha </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1401 </td> <td> N16 E27 </td> <td class="center"> 18 </td> <td class="center"> Ekc </td> <td class="center"> 0450 </td> <td class="center"> 15 </td> <td class="center"> 214 </td> <td class="center"> Beta-Gamma </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1402 </td> <td> N28 E27 </td> <td class="center"> 08 </td> <td class="center"> Dko </td> <td class="center"> 0550 </td> <td class="center"> 08 </td> <td class="center"> 214 </td> <td class="center"> Beta </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1403 </td> <td> S19 W11 </td> <td class="center"> 05 </td> <td class="center"> Cro </td> <td class="center"> 0020 </td> <td class="center"> 03 </td> <td class="center"> 252 </td> <td class="center"> Beta </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1405 </td> <td> N11 E39 </td> <td class="center"> 02 </td> <td class="center"> Hsx </td> <td class="center"> 0040 </td> <td class="center"> 02 </td> <td class="center"> 202 </td> <td class="center"> Alpha </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1406 </td> <td> S24 W68 </td> <td class="center"> 02 </td> <td class="center"> Cso </td> <td class="center"> 0030 </td> <td class="center"> 04 </td> <td class="center"> 309 </td> <td class="center"> Beta </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1407 </td> <td> N17 E13 </td> <td class="center"> 02 </td> <td class="center"> Bxo </td> <td class="center"> 0010 </td> <td class="center"> 01 </td> <td class="center"> 228 </td> <td class="center"> Beta </td> </tr> </tbody></table> Coordinates and other characteristics of active regions are issued for January 19, 2012 00:31 UT