เหตุการณ์ใน-นอกโลก VS ภัยธรรมชาติ และupdate พายุสุริยะ

November 9, 2011

Diagram of the solar flare activity

X-ray emission of the Sun from 08.11.2011 to 09.11.2011 (GOES-15)


Solar flares today

Today, 2 solar flares were observed:

<table class="table_4" width="750" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <th width="1%"> </th> <th width="1%" align="left"> </th> <th>Active region</th> <th>Begin, UT</th> <th>Max, UT</th> <th>End, UT</th> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C1.9</td> <td class="center">1339</td> <td class="center">01:43:00</td> <td class="center">02:19:00</td> <td class="center">02:51:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class M1.1</td> <td class="center">1342</td> <td class="center">13:04:00</td> <td class="center">13:35:00</td> <td class="center">14:12:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
Solar flares yesterday

Yesterday, 3 solar flares were observed:

<table class="table_4" width="750" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr> <th width="1%"> </th> <th width="1%" align="left"> </th> <th>Active region</th> <th>Begin, UT</th> <th>Max, UT</th> <th>End, UT</th> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C2.6</td> <td class="center">1339</td> <td class="center">07:23:00</td> <td class="center">08:19:00</td> <td class="center">08:45:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C1.8</td> <td class="center">1339</td> <td class="center">19:23:00</td> <td class="center">19:28:00</td> <td class="center">19:38:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C1.2</td> <td class="center">1342</td> <td class="center">21:00:00</td> <td class="center">21:04:00</td> <td class="center">21:10:00</td></tr></tbody></table>
November 9, 2011



Sunspots and active regions

The following regions with sunspots can be now observed on the Sun's surface
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</td> </tr> <tr> <th width="1%"> Group number </th> <th width="10%"> Sunspots Location on the Sun </th> <th width="11%"> The number of spots in the group </th> <th width="20%"> The classification by the Zurich's modified system </th> <th width="30%"> Area (millions of shares of the solar hemisphere) </th> <th width="9%"> Group length (in degrees) </th> <th width="16%"> Carrington Longitude (in degrees) </th> <th class="last" width="1%"> Group's magnet type </th> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
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</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1338 </td> <td> S14 W25 </td> <td class="center"> 15 </td> <td class="center"> Esi </td> <td class="center"> 0180 </td> <td class="center"> 13 </td> <td class="center"> 121 </td> <td class="center"> Beta </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
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</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1339 </td> <td> N19 W08 </td> <td class="center"> 40 </td> <td class="center"> Ekc </td> <td class="center"> 0940 </td> <td class="center"> 15 </td> <td class="center"> 104 </td> <td class="center"> Beta-Gamma </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
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</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1340 </td> <td> S08 E22 </td> <td class="center"> 01 </td> <td class="center"> Hsx </td> <td class="center"> 0080 </td> <td class="center"> 02 </td> <td class="center"> 074 </td> <td class="center"> Alpha </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
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</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1341 </td> <td> N11 E41 </td> <td class="center"> 05 </td> <td class="center"> Dao </td> <td class="center"> 0110 </td> <td class="center"> 08 </td> <td class="center"> 055 </td> <td class="center"> Beta </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
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</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1342 </td> <td> N18 E34 </td> <td class="center"> 14 </td> <td class="center"> Eso </td> <td class="center"> 0130 </td> <td class="center"> 11 </td> <td class="center"> 061 </td> <td class="center"> Beta </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
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</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1343 </td> <td> N28 E49 </td> <td class="center"> 01 </td> <td class="center"> Hsx </td> <td class="center"> 0090 </td> <td class="center"> 02 </td> <td class="center"> 047 </td> <td class="center"> Alpha </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
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</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1344 </td> <td> S22 W07 </td> <td class="center"> 02 </td> <td class="center"> Axx </td> <td class="center"> 0000 </td> <td class="center"> 01 </td> <td class="center"> 103 </td> <td class="center"> Alpha </td> </tr> </tbody></table> Coordinates and other characteristics of active regions are issued for November 09, 2011 00:31 UT
H-alpha plages without spots

The following H-alpha plages without spots can be currently observed on the Sun's surface <table class="table_1" width="100%" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr class="separator_1"> <td width="30%">
</td> <td width="35%">
</td> <td width="35%">
</td> </tr> <tr> <th> Area number </th> <th> Coordinates </th> <th> Carrington Longitude (in degrees) </th> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
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</td> </tr> <tr> <td> № 1336 </td> <td> N11 W57 </td> <td> 153 </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td> № 1337 </td> <td> N18 W42 </td> <td> 138 </td> </tr> </tbody></table> Coordinates and other characteristics of active regions are issued for November 09, 2011 00:31 UT

Daily Sun: 10 Nov 11 <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td></td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td></td> </tr> </tbody></table> Sunspot 1339 is in a state of slow decay, but it still poses a threat for M-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

INCOMING CME? Yesterday, Nov. 9th around 1330 UT, a magnetic filament in the vicinity of sunspot complex 1342-1343 erupted, producing a M1-class solar flare and hurling a CME into space. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) recorded the progress of the expanding plasma cloud:

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Although the eruption was not squarely aimed at Earth, the CME is likely to deliver a glancing blow to our planet's magnetic field on Nov. 11th or 12th. This could add to the impact of another CME already en route. The earlier cloud was propelled by a filament eruption (movie) on Nov. 7th and is also expected to deliver a glancing blow on Nov. 11th.​

Analyses of these events are still preliminary, and the forecast may change. For now it is safe to say that high-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on Nov. 11-12. Aurora alerts: text, voice.


SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids​

CME ที่กำลังจะมาถึง? เมื่อวานนี้วันที่ 9 พฤศจิกายน ประมาณ 13.30 UT (สองทุ่มครึ่ง) - กลุ่มจุดดับ 1342-1343 เกิดการปะทุขึ้น ทำให้เกิด การระบิดของดวงอาทิตย์ M1-class และเกิด CME พุ่งไปในอวกาศ ดาวเทียม SOHO ได้บันทึกการเกิดของพาสม่านี้

ถึงอย่างไรก็ตามการระเบิดครั้งนี้ ไม่ได้มุ่งตรงมายังโลก แต่ CME ก็เหมือนราวกับว่าจะทำให้แม่เหล็กโลกแปรปรวนได้ในวันที่ 11 หรือ 12 พฤศจิกายน และอันนี้ก็สามารถเพิ่มผลกระทบของ CME อีกอันที่อยู่ในทางนี้ CME ก่อนหน้านี้ถูกขับเคลื่อนโดย การปะทุของ filament ในวันที่ 7 พฤศจิกายน และถูกคาดวาจะทำให้สนามแม่เหล็กโลกแปรปรวนในวันที่ 11 พฤศจิกายน เช่นกัน ในการวิเคราะห์เหล่านี้คือ วิเคราะห์เบื้องต้นแต่จะมีการเปลี่ยนแปลงได้ สำหรับตอนนี้ ก็สามารถพูดได้ว่า ทางขั้วโลกได้เห็นออโรร่าแน่นอนในวันที่ 11-12 พฤศจิกายน

 

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 501pt; DISPLAY: table; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=668><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 79pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3379" width=106><COL style="WIDTH: 175pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 7475" width=234><COL style="WIDTH: 66pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2816" width=88><COL style="WIDTH: 110pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 4684" width=146><COL style="WIDTH: 71pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3020" width=94><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 14.4pt" height=19><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 79pt; HEIGHT: 14.4pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: #dddddd 1pt solid" class=xl81 height=19 width=106>วันที่</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #dddddd; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 175pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: #dddddd 1pt solid" class=xl82 width=234>เหตุการณ์ที่ดวงอาทิตย์</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #dddddd; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 66pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: #dddddd 1pt solid" class=xl82 width=88>ความรุนแรง</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #dddddd; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 110pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: #dddddd 1pt solid" class=xl82 width=146>ผลต่อโลกจาก:</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #dddddd; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 71pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid" class=xl83 width=94>ความรุนแรง</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 14.4pt" height=19><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #dddddd 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 79pt; HEIGHT: 43.2pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #dddddd 1pt solid" class=xl78 height=57 rowSpan=3 width=106 align=left> 8 พย</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #dddddd 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #dddddd; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 175pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #dddddd 1pt solid" class=xl69 width=234 align=left>จุดดับ 1339 เรียงตัวกับโลก</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #dddddd 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #dddddd 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: red; WIDTH: 66pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #dddddd 1pt solid" class=xl79 rowSpan=3 width=88 align=left>มาก</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #dddddd; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 110pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #dddddd 1pt solid" class=xl65 width=146 align=left>พายุสุริยะ 3 พย</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #dddddd 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #dddddd 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: red; WIDTH: 71pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid" class=xl80 rowSpan=3 width=94 align=left>มาก </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 14.4pt" height=19><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #dddddd 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #dddddd; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 175pt; HEIGHT: 14.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #dddddd; BORDER-RIGHT: #dddddd 1pt solid" class=xl67 height=19 width=234 align=left>พายุสุริยะ 0 UTC ด้านเดียวกับโลก</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #dddddd; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 110pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #dddddd 1pt solid" class=xl65 width=146 align=left>จุดดับเกิดใหม่ 1342</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 14.4pt" height=19><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #dddddd 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #dddddd; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 175pt; HEIGHT: 14.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #dddddd; BORDER-RIGHT: #dddddd 1pt solid" class=xl66 height=19 width=234 align=left>จุดดับหดตัว</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #dddddd 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #dddddd; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 110pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #dddddd 1pt solid" class=xl69 width=146 align=left>จุดดับ 1338 ขยายตัว</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 14.4pt" height=19><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #dddddd 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 79pt; HEIGHT: 71.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #dddddd; BORDER-RIGHT: #dddddd 1pt solid" class=xl72 height=95 rowSpan=4 width=106 align=left> 9 พย</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #dddddd 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #dddddd; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 175pt; BORDER-TOP: #dddddd; BORDER-RIGHT: #dddddd 1pt solid" class=xl66 width=234 align=left>จุดดับ 1339 เรียงตัวกับโลก</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #dddddd 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #dddddd 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: red; WIDTH: 66pt; BORDER-TOP: #dddddd; BORDER-RIGHT: #dddddd 1pt solid" class=xl71 rowSpan=4 width=88 align=left>มาก </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #dddddd 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #dddddd; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 110pt; BORDER-TOP: #dddddd; BORDER-RIGHT: #dddddd 1pt solid" class=xl66 width=146 align=left>พายุสุริยะ 3,5 พย</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #dddddd 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #dddddd 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: red; WIDTH: 71pt; BORDER-TOP: #dddddd; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid" class=xl73 rowSpan=4 width=94 align=left>มาก</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 28.2pt" height=38><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #dddddd 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #dddddd; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 175pt; HEIGHT: 28.2pt; BORDER-TOP: #dddddd; BORDER-RIGHT: #dddddd 1pt solid" class=xl67 height=38 width=234 align=left>พายุสุริยะ 11:54 UTC ด้านเดียวกับโลก</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #dddddd 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #dddddd; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 110pt; BORDER-TOP: #dddddd; BORDER-RIGHT: #dddddd 1pt solid" class=xl66 width=146 align=left>X-ray M1</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 14.4pt" height=19><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #dddddd 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #dddddd; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 175pt; HEIGHT: 14.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #dddddd; BORDER-RIGHT: #dddddd 1pt solid" class=xl66 height=19 width=234 align=left>X-ray M1</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #dddddd 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #dddddd; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 110pt; BORDER-TOP: #dddddd; BORDER-RIGHT: #dddddd 1pt solid" class=xl68 width=146> </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 14.4pt" height=19><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #dddddd 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #dddddd; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 175pt; HEIGHT: 14.4pt; BORDER-TOP: #dddddd; BORDER-RIGHT: #dddddd 1pt solid" class=xl66 height=19 width=234 align=left>จุดดับขยายตัว </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #dddddd 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #dddddd; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 110pt; BORDER-TOP: #dddddd; BORDER-RIGHT: #dddddd 1pt solid" class=xl68 width=146> </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 14.4pt" height=19><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 79pt; HEIGHT: 42.6pt; BORDER-TOP: #dddddd; BORDER-RIGHT: #dddddd 1pt solid" class=xl72 height=57 rowSpan=2 width=106 align=left> 10 พย</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #dddddd 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 175pt; BORDER-TOP: #dddddd; BORDER-RIGHT: #dddddd 1pt solid" class=xl66 rowSpan=2 width=234 align=left>จุดดับขยายตัว 1344 </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #dddddd 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: red; WIDTH: 66pt; BORDER-TOP: #dddddd; BORDER-RIGHT: #dddddd 1pt solid" class=xl70 rowSpan=2 width=88 align=left>มาก </TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #dddddd 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #dddddd; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 110pt; BORDER-TOP: #dddddd; BORDER-RIGHT: #dddddd 1pt solid" class=xl66 width=146 align=left>พายุสุริยะ 8 พย</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #dddddd 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: red; WIDTH: 71pt; BORDER-TOP: #dddddd; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid" class=xl73 rowSpan=2 width=94 align=left>มาก</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 28.2pt" height=38><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #dddddd; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 110pt; HEIGHT: 28.2pt; BORDER-TOP: #dddddd; BORDER-RIGHT: #dddddd 1pt solid" class=xl75 height=38 width=146 align=left>จุดดับขยายตัวอย่างฉับพลัน 8,9 พย</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

9 พฤศจิกายน

เกิดพายุสุริยะจำนวนบ่อยครั้งและมีขนาดใหญ่ในเวลา 14:55 UTC ทิศทางมาทางโลกซึ่งจะส่งผลให้เกิดสภาพอากาศแปรปรวนระหว่างวันที่ 11-14 พฤศจิกายน พี้นที่ๆคาดว่าจะได้รับผลกระทบหลักได้แก่บริเวณเอเซียตะวันออก ประเทศในเอเซียตะวันออกเฉียงใต้ที่ติดกับมหาสมุทรแปซิฟิก และ อเมริกาใต้ รองลงมาเป็นประเทศในแอฟริกาและยุโรป

จากโมเดลพายสุุริยะพบว่าแนวหน้าของพลังงานจากมาถึงวันที่ 11 พย เวลาประมาณ 18 UTC และมวลหลักจะมาถึงในเวลาประมาณ 12 พย เวลา 6-12 UTC

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นอกจากนั้นยังมีการขยายตัวของจุดดับอย่างฉับพลัน เป็นลางบอกเหตุถึงแผ่นดินไหวขนาดระหว่าง 6.5-8 ริตเตอร์ในอีก 1-3 วันข้างหน้า ซึ่งมาตรจุดดับขึ้นถึง 220

ปล. 1-3 วันข้างหน้าคือ 11-13 พฤศจิกายน

จับตาการเรียงตัวของดาวเคราะห์ช่วงวันที่ 23 ตุลาคม - 15 พฤศจิกายน คศ 2010 update 11 พฤศจิกายน 1:53 UTC | Truth4Thai.org

 

You can read important jargon as in the following links.
Index of /glossary
SpaceWeather.com: Sunspot Plotter

 

SKY COLORS: Auroras in Nebraska are rare, but who needs auroras when you've got iridescence? University of Nebraska freshman Evan Ludes took this picture of cloud-colors over Omaha on the morning of Nov. 10th:

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"I walked out of class this morning and was greeted by one of the best iridescence displays I've ever seen!" says Ludes. "The colors formed on the leading edge of a long stretch of cirrocumulus clouds."

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Iridescent colors appear when sunlight shines through water droplets in the edges of clouds. The mechanism is diffraction. The colors are at their brightest and most distinct when the droplets are small and uniformly-sized.


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"I'm no optics expert," says Ludes, "but I'm guessing the colors were particularly vivid since these clouds were newly formed and therefore likely had water droplets of similar shape and size. It was incredible how distinct the bands of colors were even when zoomed in at 300mm!"

​

 

MYSTERY OF THE LUNAR IONOSPHERE: How can a world without air have an ionosphere? Somehow the Moon has done it. Lunar researchers have been struggling with this mystery for years, and they may have finally found a solution. [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zSrP4MacFE"]ScienceCasts: Mystery of the Lunar Ionosphere - YouTube[/ame]

ความลึกลับของไอโอโนสเฟียร์ของดวงจันทร์: โลกที่ไม่มีอากาศทำไมมีไอโอโนสเฟียร์ได้? อย่างไรก็ตามดวงจันทร์มีแล้ว นักวิจัยดวงจันทร์ได้ประสบอุปสรรคกับความลึกลับนี้มาเป็นปีๆ และในที่สุดเค้าน่าจะพบทางออกแล้ว

 

ไม่ทราบเหมือนกันว่า ปี 2555 ดวงอาทิตย์จะสลับขั้วนะ
แต่เท่าที่ทราบมาถ้าเป็นช่วง solar maximum จะมีจุดดับมาก และเกิด solar flare มาก และก็มีผลกระทบต่อโลกแน่นอน อย่างที่เราเจอๆ น้ำจำนวนมหาศาลนี่แหล่ะ ช่วงนั้น อาจมีแรงกว่านี้ ทั้งน้ำท่วม ภูเขาไฟระเบิด แผ่นดินไหว เท่าๆ ที่ทราบมามันจะประมาณปลายปี 2555 ต่อ 2556 จ้า

 

MERCURY-DIRECTED CME: A significant coronal mass ejection (CME) blasted away from the sun's eastern hemisphere on Nov. 12th. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say the cloud will hit Mercury on Nov. 13th at 1800 UT (+/- 7 hr) followed by Venus about one day later. The innermost planets are about to experience space weather. [CME: movie, forecast track]

CME ขนาดใหญ่พอควร ระเบิดพุ่งไปยังดาวพุธ จากด้านตะวันออกของดวงอาทิตย์ เมื่อวันที่ 12 พฤศจิกายน - คาดว่าจะถึงดาวพุธประมาณ วันที่ 13 พฤศจิกายน 1800 UT = ประมาณตีหนึ่งวันที่ 14 พฤศจิกายน เวลาไทย (ความคลาดเคลื่อน +/-7 ชั่วโมง) และอีก CME จะถึงดาวศุกร์อีกวันหนึ่งต่อมา

 

REMARKABLE SOLAR ACTIVITY: There haven't been any strong solar flares in days. Nevertheless, some impressive activity is underway on the sun. For one thing, an enormous wall of plasma is towering over the sun's southeastern horizon. Stephen Ramsden of Atlanta, Georgia, took this picture on Nov. 11th:

​

​

"Solar forums all over the world are buzzing with Sun-stronomers proclaiming this to be the biggest prominence that many of them had ever witnessed," he says.


​

Remarkably, though, this is not the biggest thing. A dark filament of magnetism is snaking more than halfway around the entire sun: SDO image. From end to end, it stretches more than a million km or about three times the distance between Earth and the Moon. If the filament becomes unstable, as solar filaments are prone to do, it could collapse and hit the stellar surface below, triggering a Hyder flare. No one can say if the eruption of such a sprawling structure would be Earth directed.

​

"I cant help but wonder what could possibly come next since we are still over a year away from the forecasted Solar Maximum," adds Ramsden. "There's never been a better time to own a solar telescope than now!"


มี filament อันขนาดมหึมาตรงดวงอาทิตย์ กำลังจะหลุดออกมา ไม่รู้จะมีผลอะไรกับโลกขนาดไหน แต่ดูน่ากลัวจัง
​

 

Space Weather News for Nov. 13, 2011
http://spaceweather.com

SOLAR ACTIVITY: The sun is putting on one of its best displays of the new solar cycle--not with sunspots and flares, but rather with towering walls of plasma and filaments of magnetism. One dark filament is stretching more than a million kilometers across the face of the sun, about three times the distance between Earth and the Moon. Visit http://spaceweather.com for pictures and more information about these remarkable structures.

Activity ของดวงอาทิตย์: ดวงอาทิตย์ กำลังจะแสดงโชว์ที่ดีที่สุดสำหรับ วงรอบใหม่ - ไม่ใช่จุดดับหรือflares แต่คือ plasma และ filament ของแม่เหล็กพุ่งไปยังผนัง.

หนึ่ง filament สีดำ ยาวกว่า 1 ล้านกิโลเมตรยาว ตลอดแนวของดวงอาทิตย์ (ประมาณ 3 เท่าของระยะระหว่างโลกกับดวงจันทร์)


สองวันก่อนยังยาวแค่ 700,000 กิโลเมตร

GRAND FILAMENT: A filament of magnetism more than 700,000 km long is curling around the sun's northeastern limb. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory photographed the vast structure during the early hours of Nov. 12th:​

​

The filament is weighted down by solar plasma. If it erupts--as such filaments are prone to do--it could fall to the stellar surface below, setting off an explosion called a Hyder flare. Or it might fly upward, hurling fragments of itself into space. Amateur astronomers with solar telescopes are encouraged to monitor the region for developments. The only challenge will be fitting the whole thing into a single field of view. Solar flare alerts: text, voice.



Credit : solarham.com
​

 

DISAPPEARING TRICK: If you're a spy satellite, the ability to disappear could come in handy. US spysat Lacrosse 5 occasionally performs just such a trick. On Nov. 11th, satellite watcher Dr. Marco Langbroek of Leiden, the Netherlands, caught the orbiting radar suddenly fading to near invisibility:

​

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxtUcQ5t1gA"][/ame]​

"Lacrosse 5 is typically bright but occasionally performs what is known among observers as the 'disappearance trick,'" says Langbroek. "Its brightness suddenly drops 3 astronomonical magnitudes or more."​

No one knows whether or not this is a deliberate form of stealth, but Langbroek doesn't think so: "Maybe some part of the spacecraft such as its solar panels casts a shadow over the main body," he speculates. "Or perhaps the surface of Lacrosse 5 becomes less reflective at certain viewing angles. This could happen as the craft suddenly changes attitude for some reason." Other Lacrosse satellites do not perform the trick, at least not to this extent, suggesting that the design of Lacrosse 5 differs from its predecessors.

​

"Later in the movie a bright Soyuz rocket booster (81-008B) passes by as well," he adds. "This is a piece of space debris connected to the 1981 launch of a Russian military satellite."​

 

สัญญาณดาวเทียมก็ขาดหายแบบผิดปกติมาก

 

รูปนี้อย่างกะดวงอาทิตย์ร้าว กำลังจะแตกแหน่ะ

 

SolarHam.com

Elizabeth Throckmorton Kellett

Tash Leith

SolarHam.com

 

จุดดับของดวงอาทิตย์ 1339, 1341, 1342, 1347 เป็นจุดที่ก่อให้เกิดความเสี่ยงสำหรับประเทศไทย ซึ่งอาจจำให้มีฝนประมาณกลางประเทศ (แต่ความกดอากาศสูงปกคลุมอยู่ อาจทำให้หนาวเย็นไปกว่าปกติ แทนที่จะเป็นน้ำ) ลงไปจนถึงภาคใต้ (มากได้แก่บริเวณ แถวประจวบ ชุมพร, ภูเก็ต, กระบี่, พังงา, สุราษฎร์, นครศรีธรรมราช) แบบว่าใต้เกือบหมด

 

Hyder Flares

1. What is a Hyder flare?

Flares are intense brightenings that occur in the solar chromosphere. Flares are generally observed from Earth using narrow band filters, typically with a bandwidth of less than 0.1 nm, and often centred on the Hydrogen-Alpha wavelength of 656.3 nm. (Flares also have counterparts, that is, sudden outbursts, in the radio and X-ray spectrum).



Most flares occur around active regions associated with sunspot groups. However, occasionally a flare (sudden brightening) is observed well away from an active region or sunspot group. These flares are invariably associated with the sudden disappearance of a large (thick, long, 'bushy') dark solar filament, and are termed Hyder flares.



2. Why are Hyder flares so named?
Max Waldmeier wrote a paper in 1938 which described the phenomenon of suddenly disappearing filaments (disparition brusque), and mentioned that these can be associated with flare-like brightenings, but it was left to Charles Hyder to postulate the first comprehensive mechanism for the such flares.



Following on work from his doctoral thesis with the University of Colorado in Boulder (1964), Hyder published two papers in the second volume of the journal Solar Physics (1967) in which the mechanism by which Hyder flares might occur was discussed in detail. Hyder was then on the staff of the (US) Air Force Cambridge Research Laboratories at the Sacramento Peak Observatory in New Mexico.


It was these papers in Solar Physics by which Hyder's name became associated with the flares in question, even though he was by no means the first to observe them.

3. What are the characteristics of Hyder flares?
As previously mentioned, the name Hyder flare is given to a flare that occurs away from an active region or sunspot group and that is associated with the sudden disappearance of a dark filament. The appearance of these flares can range from a string of bright knots on one or both sides of the filament (or rather, the position previously occupied by the filament, sometimes called the filament channel), to a single or double ribbon flare. The ribbons are parallel to the filament channel.



If only one ribbon is present, it will lie to one side of the channel, whereas if two parallel ribbons occur, one ribbon will lie on one side of the filament channel, and the other ribbon will lie on the opposite side.


One interesting characteristic of Hyder flares is that they usually develop or rise to maximum brightness much more slowly than do the more common flares associated with active regions. The larger Hyder flares may take 30 to 60 minutes to rise to a peak intensity, and then they may last for several hours. Although they may attain a large area, they usually have a relatively low intensity. Thus, classifications for a large Hyder flare may read 2F, 2N or possibly even 3F.



This contrasts to an active region flare in which 3F is very rare.



An active region flare that attains sufficient area to put it into the importance class 3, will invariably have either a Normal or more usually a Brilliant brightness classification.


X-ray flares and radio (microwave) bursts associated with the optical Hyder flare, are also generally long lived phenomenon and are classified as the gradual rise and fall type of event (in contrast to the impulsive and complex events associated with large active region flares).


Generally Hyder flares are not associated with energetic particle emission or geomagnetic storms (implying that they may not be associated with a coronal mass ejection).



However, this is not always the case, as a large halo CME observed by the LASCO solar coronagraph on board the SOHO spacecraft was most definitely associated with a Hyder flare (2N/M1) observed on 12 September 2000. This same complex also appeared to have produced energetic protons at geosynchronous orbit with energies in excess of 100 MeV, and in substantial numbers at energies of 10 MeV. It is believed that the sudden storm commencement observed at 0450UT 15 September, and the subsequent minor geomagnetic storm was produced by this particular CME.

4. What produces Hyder flares?
Hyder's explanation of the flare type now named after him depended on the observational evidence that



(1) often the flare was a parallel ribbon flare with one ribbon each side of the filament channel, and



(2) that geomagnetic storms were not associated with these flares. This led to the speculation that the filamentary material was not ejected far into the corona, but in fact fell back to the chromosphere producing the flare.


Stable or quiescent filaments are believed to lie in and along a magnetic trough. It is thought that the sudden disappearance of such a filament is due to a reconfiguration of the field. In essence, the magnetic trough becomes a magnetic ridge (the bottom of the trough elevating in a period of tens of minutes to become the peak of the ridge).



In this process, the filamentary material (cooler gas) is thought to be accelerated into the corona. Hyder's explanation is that, in the case of the Hyder flare, some or even most of the filament material, instead of suffering acceleration and ejection, falls down the sides of the magnetic ridge and interacts with the lower chromospheric material producing the flare. If the infall process is symmetrical, then the double parallel ribbon flare will result, if asymmetrical, then only one ribbon results. If the infall is sporadic, or the material insufficient, then only bright knots of flare are produced. Hyder did calculations to show that the kinetic energy of the infalling material should be sufficient to provide the required flare energy release observed.


Of late, the Hyder mechanism has come into question. Some people (notably Zirin) have questioned whether infall occurs, stating that the magnetic reconfiguration must always produce ejection.



The respective roles of flares and CME's in solar active processes has also been hotly debated, and this has implications for the exact mechanism of Hyder flares.



We certainly have enough observational evidence to show that Hyder flares can be associated with both CME's and energetic particle production. For the moment, the question of Hyder flare production mechanism appears unresolved, and will probably be sidelined until the more significant (and undoubtedly related) issue of CME - flare production mechanism is sorted out.


The bottom line is that at this stage in solar physics we do not really know what produces a flare nor what produces a CME. There are competing theories, but all tend to have deficiencies with respect to matching the observational evidence. We certainly believe that they all depend on the reconfiguration of magnetic fields as their primary energy source, but in the final analysis, we really only believe this because we can conceive of no other solar energy source of sufficient magnitude.

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ท่าทางแปลกๆ ดาวเที่ยมหลายๆ ดวงสัญญาณขาดหาย