เหตุการณ์ใน-นอกโลก VS ภัยธรรมชาติ และupdate พายุสุริยะ

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hTLyli2ctZM]NASA & Nibiru & 2012 - YouTube[/ame]

 

Comet Corpses in the Solar Wind

Jan. 20, 2012: A paper published in today's issue of Science raises an intriguing new possibility for astronomers: unearthing comet corpses in the solar wind. The new research is based on dramatic images of a comet disintegrating in the sun's atmosphere last July.



Comet Lovejoy grabbed headlines in Dec. 2011 when it plunged into the sun's atmosphere and emerged again relatively intact. But it was not the first comet to graze the sun. Last summer a smaller comet took the same trip with sharply different results. Comet C/2011 N3 (SOHO) was completely destroyed on July 6, 2011, when it swooped 100,000 km above the stellar surface. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) recorded the disintegration.




Comet C/2011 N3 fragments as it passes through the sun's atmosphere on July 6, 2011. Credit: Solar Dynamics Observatory/K. Schrijver et al [larger image]



"For the first time, we saw a comet move across the face of the sun and disappear," says Dean Pesnell, a co-author of the Science paper and Project Scientist for SDO at the Goddard Space Flight Center. "It was unprecedented."


In Jan. 20th issue of Science, the research team reported their analysis of the SDO images.


A key finding was the amount of material deposited into the sun's atmosphere. "The comet dissolved into more than a million tons of electrically charged gas," says Pesnell. "We believe these vapors eventually mixed with the solar wind and blew back into the solar system."


Pesnell says it might be possible to detect such "comet corpses" as they waft past Earth. Comets are rich in ice (frozen H₂O), so when they dissolve in the hot solar atmosphere, the gaseous remains contain plenty of oxygen and hydrogen. A solar wind stream containing extra oxygen could be a telltale sign of a disintegrated comet. Other elements abundant in comets would provide similar markers.
Comet corpses are probably plentiful. There's a busy family of comets known as "Kreutz sungrazers," thought to be fragments of a giant comet that broke apart hundreds of years ago. Every day or so, SOHO sees one plunge into the sun and vanish. Each disintegration event creates a puff of comet vapor that might be detectable by spacecraft sampling the solar wind.


Why bother? Researchers are beginning to think of sungrazers as 'test particles' for studying the sun's atmosphere--kind of like tossing rocks into a pond. A lot can be learned about the pond by studying the ripples.




An extreme ultraviolet movie recorded by SDO shows comet Comet C/2011 N3 flying through the sun's atmosphere. [Quicktime video]



Indeed, SDO observed some extraordinary interactions between the sun and the doomed comet. As C/2011 N3 (SOHO) moved through the hot corona, cold gas lifted off the comet's nucleus and rapidly (within minutes) warmed to more than 500,000K, hot enough to shine brightly in SDO's extreme ultraviolet telescopes.


"The evaporating comet gas was glowing as brightly as the sun behind it," marvels Pesnell.


The gas was also rapidly ionized by a process called "charge exchange," which made the gas responsive to the sun's magnetic field. Caught in the grip of magnetic loops which thread the solar corona, the comet's ionized tail wagged back and forth wildly in the moments before final disintegration.


Watching this kind of sun-comet interaction could reveal new things about the thermal and magnetic structure of the solar atmosphere. Likewise, measuring how long it takes for "comet corpses" to reach Earth, and then sampling the gases when they arrive, could be very informative.


"Before SDO, no one dreamed we could observe a comet disintegrate inside the sun's atmosphere," says Pesnell who confesses that even he was a skeptic. But now, "I'm a believer."


The original research described in this story may be found in the Jan. 20^th edition of Science: Destruction of Sun-grazing comet C/2011 N3 (SOHO) by C. J. Schrijver, J. C. Brown, K. Battams, P. Saint-Hilaire, W. Liu, H. Hudson, and W. D. Pesnell



Comet Corpses in the Solar Wind - NASA Science

 

January 17, 2012

Diagram of the solar flare activity

X-ray emission of the Sun from 16.01.2012 to 17.01.2012 (GOES-15)


Solar flares today

Today, 4 solar flares were observed:

<table class="table_4" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="750"> <tbody><tr> <th width="1%"> </th> <th width="1%" align="left"> </th> <th>Active region</th> <th>Begin, UT</th> <th>Max, UT</th> <th>End, UT</th> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Flare of class M1.0</td> <td class="center">1401</td> <td class="center">04:41:00</td> <td class="center">04:53:00</td> <td class="center">05:07:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Flare of class C1.4</td> <td class="center">1401</td> <td class="center">17:19:00</td> <td class="center">17:23:00</td> <td class="center">17:25:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Flare of class C2.2</td> <td class="center">1401</td> <td class="center">18:32:00</td> <td class="center">18:37:00</td> <td class="center">18:40:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Flare of class C1.0</td> <td class="center">1401</td> <td class="center">23:53:00</td> <td class="center">23:57:00</td> <td class="center">00:03:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
Solar flares yesterday

Yesterday, 5 solar flares were observed:

<table class="table_4" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="750"> <tbody><tr> <th width="1%"> </th> <th width="1%" align="left"> </th> <th>Active region</th> <th>Begin, UT</th> <th>Max, UT</th> <th>End, UT</th> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Flare of class C2.5</td> <td class="center">1401</td> <td class="center">00:14:00</td> <td class="center">00:18:00</td> <td class="center">00:22:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Flare of class C6.5</td> <td class="center">1402</td> <td class="center">02:36:00</td> <td class="center">04:44:00</td> <td class="center">06:46:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Flare of class C3.9</td> <td class="center">1401</td> <td class="center">08:08:00</td> <td class="center">08:12:00</td> <td class="center">08:18:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Flare of class C5.5</td> <td class="center">1401</td> <td class="center">10:31:00</td> <td class="center">10:38:00</td> <td class="center">11:22:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Flare of class C3.9</td> <td class="center">1401</td> <td class="center">22:50:00</td> <td class="center">23:16:00</td> <td class="center">23:57:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
Sunspots and active regions

The following regions with sunspots can be now observed on the Sun's surface
<table class="table_1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <th width="1%"> Group number </th> <th width="10%"> Sunspots Location on the Sun </th> <th width="11%"> The number of spots in the group </th> <th width="20%"> The classification by the Zurich's modified system </th> <th width="30%"> Area (millions of shares of the solar hemisphere) </th> <th width="9%"> Group length (in degrees) </th> <th width="16%"> Carrington Longitude (in degrees) </th> <th class="last" width="1%"> Group's magnet type </th> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1395 </td> <td> N20 W44 </td> <td class="center"> 01 </td> <td class="center"> Hsx </td> <td class="center"> 0010 </td> <td class="center"> 02 </td> <td class="center"> 311 </td> <td class="center"> Alpha </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1396 </td> <td> N25 W19 </td> <td class="center"> 10 </td> <td class="center"> Dso </td> <td class="center"> 0040 </td> <td class="center"> 04 </td> <td class="center"> 286 </td> <td class="center"> Beta </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1398 </td> <td> N12 W50 </td> <td class="center"> 05 </td> <td class="center"> Cro </td> <td class="center"> 0050 </td> <td class="center"> 05 </td> <td class="center"> 317 </td> <td class="center"> Beta </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1399 </td> <td> S22 E43 </td> <td class="center"> 01 </td> <td class="center"> Hsx </td> <td class="center"> 0020 </td> <td class="center"> 01 </td> <td class="center"> 224 </td> <td class="center"> Alpha </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1401 </td> <td> N17 E51 </td> <td class="center"> 13 </td> <td class="center"> Eso </td> <td class="center"> 0420 </td> <td class="center"> 12 </td> <td class="center"> 216 </td> <td class="center"> Beta </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1402 </td> <td> N28 E53 </td> <td class="center"> 06 </td> <td class="center"> Cko </td> <td class="center"> 0480 </td> <td class="center"> 07 </td> <td class="center"> 214 </td> <td class="center"> Beta </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1404 </td> <td> N12 W29 </td> <td class="center"> 03 </td> <td class="center"> Dso </td> <td class="center"> 0030 </td> <td class="center"> 03 </td> <td class="center"> 296 </td> <td class="center"> Beta </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1405 </td> <td> N13 E65 </td> <td class="center"> 01 </td> <td class="center"> Hsx </td> <td class="center"> 0020 </td> <td class="center"> 02 </td> <td class="center"> 202 </td> <td class="center"> Alpha </td> </tr> </tbody></table> Coordinates and other characteristics of active regions are issued for January 17, 2012 00:31 UT

 

January 17, 2012

Diagram of the solar flare activity

X-ray emission of the Sun from 16.01.2012 to 17.01.2012 (GOES-15)


Solar flares today

Today, 4 solar flares were observed:

<table class="table_4" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="750"> <tbody><tr> <th width="1%"> </th> <th width="1%" align="left"> </th> <th>Active region</th> <th>Begin, UT</th> <th>Max, UT</th> <th>End, UT</th> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Flare of class M1.0</td> <td class="center">1401</td> <td class="center">04:41:00</td> <td class="center">04:53:00</td> <td class="center">05:07:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Flare of class C1.4</td> <td class="center">1401</td> <td class="center">17:19:00</td> <td class="center">17:23:00</td> <td class="center">17:25:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Flare of class C2.2</td> <td class="center">1401</td> <td class="center">18:32:00</td> <td class="center">18:37:00</td> <td class="center">18:40:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Flare of class C1.0</td> <td class="center">1401</td> <td class="center">23:53:00</td> <td class="center">23:57:00</td> <td class="center">00:03:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
Solar flares yesterday

Yesterday, 5 solar flares were observed:

<table class="table_4" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="750"> <tbody><tr> <th width="1%"> </th> <th width="1%" align="left"> </th> <th>Active region</th> <th>Begin, UT</th> <th>Max, UT</th> <th>End, UT</th> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Flare of class C2.5</td> <td class="center">1401</td> <td class="center">00:14:00</td> <td class="center">00:18:00</td> <td class="center">00:22:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Flare of class C6.5</td> <td class="center">1402</td> <td class="center">02:36:00</td> <td class="center">04:44:00</td> <td class="center">06:46:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Flare of class C3.9</td> <td class="center">1401</td> <td class="center">08:08:00</td> <td class="center">08:12:00</td> <td class="center">08:18:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Flare of class C5.5</td> <td class="center">1401</td> <td class="center">10:31:00</td> <td class="center">10:38:00</td> <td class="center">11:22:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td nowrap="nowrap" align="left">Flare of class C3.9</td> <td class="center">1401</td> <td class="center">22:50:00</td> <td class="center">23:16:00</td> <td class="center">23:57:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
Sunspots and active regions

The following regions with sunspots can be now observed on the Sun's surface
<table class="table_1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <th width="1%"> Group number </th> <th width="10%"> Sunspots Location on the Sun </th> <th width="11%"> The number of spots in the group </th> <th width="20%"> The classification by the Zurich's modified system </th> <th width="30%"> Area (millions of shares of the solar hemisphere) </th> <th width="9%"> Group length (in degrees) </th> <th width="16%"> Carrington Longitude (in degrees) </th> <th class="last" width="1%"> Group's magnet type </th> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1395 </td> <td> N20 W44 </td> <td class="center"> 01 </td> <td class="center"> Hsx </td> <td class="center"> 0010 </td> <td class="center"> 02 </td> <td class="center"> 311 </td> <td class="center"> Alpha </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1396 </td> <td> N25 W19 </td> <td class="center"> 10 </td> <td class="center"> Dso </td> <td class="center"> 0040 </td> <td class="center"> 04 </td> <td class="center"> 286 </td> <td class="center"> Beta </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1398 </td> <td> N12 W50 </td> <td class="center"> 05 </td> <td class="center"> Cro </td> <td class="center"> 0050 </td> <td class="center"> 05 </td> <td class="center"> 317 </td> <td class="center"> Beta </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1399 </td> <td> S22 E43 </td> <td class="center"> 01 </td> <td class="center"> Hsx </td> <td class="center"> 0020 </td> <td class="center"> 01 </td> <td class="center"> 224 </td> <td class="center"> Alpha </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1401 </td> <td> N17 E51 </td> <td class="center"> 13 </td> <td class="center"> Eso </td> <td class="center"> 0420 </td> <td class="center"> 12 </td> <td class="center"> 216 </td> <td class="center"> Beta </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1402 </td> <td> N28 E53 </td> <td class="center"> 06 </td> <td class="center"> Cko </td> <td class="center"> 0480 </td> <td class="center"> 07 </td> <td class="center"> 214 </td> <td class="center"> Beta </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1404 </td> <td> N12 W29 </td> <td class="center"> 03 </td> <td class="center"> Dso </td> <td class="center"> 0030 </td> <td class="center"> 03 </td> <td class="center"> 296 </td> <td class="center"> Beta </td> </tr> <tr class="separator_1"> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> <td>
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"> № 1405 </td> <td> N13 E65 </td> <td class="center"> 01 </td> <td class="center"> Hsx </td> <td class="center"> 0020 </td> <td class="center"> 02 </td> <td class="center"> 202 </td> <td class="center"> Alpha </td> </tr> </tbody></table> Coordinates and other characteristics of active regions are issued for January 17, 2012 00:31 UT

</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

 

Sun shoots a fastball at Earth, but minimal impact expected

Courtesy of NASA - Combined images from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) satellites show a giant blob of plasma (top) ejected by the sun on Thursday. The cloud of charged gas is expected to reach Earth Sunday.


By Brian Vastag, Saturday, January 21, 1:53 AM


<article> A huge sunspot unleashed a blob of charged plasma Thursday that space weather watchers predict will blast past the Earth on Sunday. Satellite operators and power companies are keeping a close eye on the incoming cloud, which could distort the Earth’s magnetic field and disrupt radio communications, especially at higher latitudes.
“Our simulations show potential to pack a good punch to Earth’s near-space environment,” said Antti Pulkkinen of the Space Weather Laboratory at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt.
</article>




NASA satellite "SOHO" captures a blob of plasma ejected by the sun on Thursday, which is expected to arrive Sunday, potentially disrupting radio communications. (Jan. 20)



But, he added, “We’re not looking at an extreme event here.”


The front edge of the burst should arrive Sunday morning, said Joseph Kunches, a spokesman for the Space Weather Prediction Center, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Boulder, Colo.


“At first glance, it was, ‘Oh my God, it’s at the center of the [sun’s] disk, it ought to go right to the Earth,’ ” Kunches said. But upon further review and “head-scratching” Thursday, NOAA’s space weather team calculated that most of the plasma blob should pass harmlessly over the top of our planet.


“It’s more of a glancing blow,” Pulkkinen said.


At their most intense, solar discharges, known as “coronal mass ejections,” can disrupt satellites, radio communications and the power grid, and force airlines to reroute transcontinental flights that pass near the North Pole. Solar activity can also generate dancing auroras, the northern and southern lights.


Spit out by the sun Thursday morning, the huge blob of charged gas spotted by NASA satellites is speeding toward Earth at more than 2 million mph. The most damaging solar discharges, which are very rare, can zoom at speeds more than twice that fast.


The ejection appears to be the most threatening since the sun spit out three large blobs in quick succession last August.


Such discharges shoot out of sunspots, which are dark areas on the sun’s surface where tangled magnetic fields sometimes discharge massive spurts of energy.


Solar activity ramps up and down on a roughly 11-year cycle. Over the past year, the number of solar flares has jumped up as the sun approaches its predicted maximum activity in 2013.


While the Earth appears to have dodged this particular solar bullet, the roiling sunspot could generate more activity over the coming week before it rotates out of the view of the Earth.


“We’re keeping a close eye on it,” Pulkkinen said.


Besides sparking pretty auroras, heightened solar activity has a more tangible benefit: It cleans up space junk. As the sun acts up, the Earth’s atmosphere expands, increasing friction on dead satellites, rocket parts and other trash in low Earth orbit, pulling them down.


The amount of debris in Earth orbit “actually decreased during 2011 as solar activity increased toward an anticipated maximum,” NASA’s chief space junk watcher, Nicholas Johnson, wrote in the January issue of the agency’s Orbital Debris Quarterly Newsletter.

 

NEOShield to assess Earth defence


NEOShield is a new international project that will assess the threat posed by Near Earth Objects (NEO) and look at the best possible solutions for dealing with a big asteroid or comet on a collision path with our planet.



The effort is being led from the German space agency's (DLR) Institute of Planetary Research in Berlin, and had its kick-off meeting this week.
It will draw on expertise from across Europe, Russia and the US.
It's a major EU-funded initiative that will pull together all the latest science, initiate a fair few laboratory experiments and new modelling work, and then try to come to some definitive positions.
Industrial partners, which include the German, British and French divisions of the big Astrium space company, will consider the engineering architecture required to deflect one of these bodies out of our path.
Should we kick it, try to tug it, or even blast it off its trajectory?
"We're going to collate all the scientific information with a view to mitigation," explains project leader Prof Alan Harris at DLR.
"What do you need to know about an asteroid in order to be able to change its course - to deflect it from a catastrophic course with the Earth?"
It's likely that NEOShield will, at the end of its three-and-a-half-year study period, propose to the politicians that they launch a mission to demonstrate the necessary technology.
The NEO threat may seem rather distant, but the geological and observational records tell us it is real.

The European Space Agency designed - but never launched - the Don Quijote mission
On average, an object about the size of car will enter the Earth's atmosphere once a year, producing a spectacular fireball in the sky.
About every 2,000 years or so, an object the size of a football field will impact the Earth, causing significant local damage.
And then, every few million years, a rock turns up that has a girth measured in kilometres. An impact from one of these will produce global effects.
The latest estimates indicate that we've probably found a little over 90% of the true monsters out there and none look like they'll hit us.
It is that second category that merits further investigation.
Data from Nasa's Wise telescope suggests there are likely to be about 19,500 NEOs in the 100-1,000m size range, and the vast majority of these have yet to be identified and tracked.
New telescopes are coming that will significantly improve detection success. In the meantime, the prudent course would be to develop a strategy for the inevitable.
The strongest mitigation candidates currently would appear to be:
Kinetic impactor: This mission might look like Nasa's Deep Impact mission of 2005, or the Don Quijote mission that Europe designed but never launched. It involves perhaps a shepherding spacecraft releasing an impactor to strike the big rock or comet. This gentle nudge, depending when and how it's done, could change the velocity of the rock ever so slightly to make it arrive "at the crossroads" sufficiently early or late to miss Earth.
"The amount of debris, or ejecta, produced in the impact would affect the momentum of the NEO," says Prof Harris.
"Of course, that will depend on what sort of asteroid it is - its physical characteristics. What's its surface like; how porous or dense it is? This is really something you would want to test with a demonstration mission."

Can a gravity tractor be relied upon to work for as long as its effort is needed?

"Gravity tractor": This involves positioning a spacecraft close to a target object and using long-lived ion thrusters to maintain the separation between the two. Because of gravitational attraction between the spacecraft and the NEO, it is possible to pull the asteroid or comet off its trajectory. "It's like using gravity as a tow-rope," says Prof Harris. "It's not straightforward of course. Can you be sure those thrusters will keep working for the time they're needed - a decade or more? Do you have confidence that the spacecraft can look after itself autonomously all that time? These are the sorts of technical problems we will look at."


In both scenarios, the effects are small, but if initiated years - even decades - in advance should prove effective enough.
What we've learnt about asteroids, however, is that they are not all the same. Different rocks are likely to need different approaches.


One method often discussed but about which there is great uncertainty is "blast deflection" - the idea that you would detonate a nuclear device close to, or on the surface of (even buried under the surface), an incoming rock.


The Russian members of the NEOShield consortium will take a close look at the option.


At present, I detect a lot of scepticism out there about this approach. Delivering the device to just the right place would prove very difficult, and the outcomes, depending on the composition and construction of the NEO, would be very hard to predict. But some better numbers than we have currently are required and TsNIIMash, the engineering arm of the Russian space agency (Roscosmos), will gather all the available data.


"What we want to do is take a comprehensive view, to try to draw everything we know together, with the right expertise so that this thing has momentum," commented Dr Ralph Cordey, from Astrium UK.


"We will look at the spectrum of techniques, trying to see which ones might be applicable in different cases. And then taking it to a level where we do some detailed design work on a possible mission to demonstrate one or more of these techniques."


And Prof Harris added: "At the end of this, we want to be able to say to the space agencies 'if you're interested in asteroid mitigation, this is what we think. We have six countries represented in our consortium and we're all agreed this is the way to go'.


"The politicians would then have everything on a plate. All they have to do is decide whether or not to execute the mission."


BBC News - NEOShield to assess Earth defence

 

CME น่าจะมาถึงเมื่อกี้ประมาณ 11 โมง

(เดา) จุดเสียงแผ่นดินไหว แถวๆ ปาปัวนิวกีนี อินโด ออสเตรเลีย

จบข่าว อิอิ :boo:

 

<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td width="76%">SPACE WEATHER NOAA Forecasts</td> <td valign="top" width="24%">

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</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td></td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td></td> </tr> </tbody></table> Updated at: 2012 Jan 20 2200 UTC <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td></td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table height="80" bgcolor="#FFFFF0" border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td width="40%">

FLARE​

</td> <td width="30%">

0-24 hr​

</td> <td width="30%">

24-48 hr​

</td> </tr> <tr> <td>

CLASS M​

</td> <td>

45 %​

</td> <td>

45 %​

</td> </tr> <tr> <td>

CLASS X​

</td> <td>

10 %​

</td> <td>

10 %​

</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

ความน่าจะเป็นที่จะเกิดระเบิด Class-X ถึง 10%

 

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VACT3L4JOOI]Mystery Planet Races By The Sun! Warning! 01/17/2012 - YouTube[/ame]

 

CME IMPACT: Arriving a little later than expected, a coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field at 0617 UT on Jan. 22nd. According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the impact strongly compressed Earth's magnetic field and briefly exposed satellites in geosynchronous orbit to solar wind plasma. Shifting lines of magnetic force induced strong ground currents in Norway and sparked bright auroras over the upper reaches of North America. This colorful corona appeared over Chatanika, Alaska:​

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"We enjoyed some amazing displays as the late arriving CME made its presence felt," says photographer Ronn Murray.​

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The impact also disturbed Earth's ionosphere. In Atlanta, Georgia, radio engineer Pieter Ibelings monitored a 4.5 MHz CODAR (coastal radar) signal as it bounced off layers of ionization along the US east coast. "The moment of impact can be clearly seen on the CODAR radar plot," he points out:​

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"The CODAR transmitters are located all around the coast and are used for mapping the ocean currents to a distance of about 200 miles," Ibelings explains. "These signals also propagate through the ionosphere so they can be picked up all around the world. The signals are almost perfect for ionospheric sounding since they are linear chirps. I capture the chirp with a receiver locked to GPS both in frequency and time. I then de-chirp the waveform so I can extract the time of arrival information at my location."​

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The CODAR echoes show ionization layers shifting vertical position by some hundreds of kilometers, changes that surely affected the propagation of HF radio signals in the aftermath of the impact. More information about Ibelings' observations may be found here.​

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SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids​

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Coronal Holes: 22 Jan 12 <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td></td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td></td> </tr> </tbody></table> Solar wind flowing from the indicated coronal hole should reach Earth on Jan. 27-28. Credit: SDO/AIA.

SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids

 

<table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td></td> </tr> </tbody></table> Solar wind
speed: 451.6 km/sec
density: 6.0 protons/cm³
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 0235 UT <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td></td> </tr> </tbody></table> X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C2 2053 UT Jan22
24-hr: C7 0257 UT Jan22
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2359 UT <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td></td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td></td> </tr> </tbody></table> Daily Sun: 22 Jan 12 <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td></td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td></td> </tr> </tbody></table> Sunspot 1401 poses a continued threat for M-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI
<table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td></td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td></td> </tr> </tbody></table> Sunspot number: 102
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 21 Jan 2012

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
Since 2004: 821 days
Typical Solar Min: 486 days
Updated 21 Jan 2012

The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 142 sfu
explanation | more data
Updated 21 Jan 2012
<table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td></td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td></td> </tr> </tbody></table> Current Auroral Oval: ​

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<table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td></td> </tr> </tbody></table> Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/POES <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td></td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td></td> </tr> </tbody></table> Planetary K-index
Now: Kp=[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] 4 [/FONT] unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm
explanation | more data

 

solar flare ลูกใหญ่มากๆๆๆๆๆๆๆๆๆๆๆๆๆๆๆๆๆๆๆ

 

จากการระเบิดวันที่ 19 มกราคม ยังไม่ทันไร ก็มีการระเบิดครั้งใหญ่อีก 23 มกราคม ดังรูปด้านล่าง

 

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1n5xvUabhQ]Volcano / Earthquake Watch Jan 22-26, 2012 - YouTube[/ame]

 

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMtluHjp1Mg]Strong M8.7 Solar Flare + CME (Jan 23, 2012) - SolarHam.com - YouTube[/ame]

 

ALMOST-X FLARE AND CME: This morning, Jan. 23rd around 0359 UT, big sunspot 1402 erupted, producing a long-duration M9-class solar flare. The explosion's M9-ranking puts it on the threshold of being an X-flare, the most powerful kind. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the flare's extreme ultraviolet flash:​

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The Solar and Heliosphere Observatory (SOHO) and the STEREO-Behind spacecraft have both detected a CME rapidly emerging from the blast site. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab estimate a velocity of 2200 km. There is little doubt that the cloud is heading in the general direction of Earth. A preliminary inspection of SOHO/STEREO imagery suggests that the CME will deliver a strong glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on Jan. 24-25 as it sails mostly north of our planet. Stay tuned for updates.Solar flare alerts: text, voice.



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เกือบจะ X-flare และมี CME: เมื่อ เช้านี้ 23 มกราคม ประมาณ 3.59 UT (11 โมง) ที่จุดดับ 1402 ได้เกิดระเบิดขึ้น ทำให้เกิดการปะทุอย่างนาน และทำให้เกิด M9 flare, การเทียบระดับ M9 คือ มันก็จะเกือบจะเป็น X-flare และมันก็คือ ชนิดที่มีกำลังมาก NASA ได้จับเห็น flare นี้มี UV ออกมาอย่างมาก
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ดาวเทียม SOHO - และ STEREO-B ทั้งสองอันจับ CME ได้ และ CME นี้วิ่งมาอย่างเร็ว คือ จับความเร็วได้ 2200 km. และให้ทายว่ามันจะวิ่งมายังโลก และมันจะทำให้สนามแม่เหล็กโลกแปรปรวน ในวันที่ 24-25 และมันกำลังวิ่งตรงมายังโลกของเรา
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SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids​

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ปล. กรณีที่เกิดซีนามิที่ญี่ปุ่น ก็มี CME เร็วเท่านี้เหมือนกันเลย (Falkman).
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