เหตุการณ์ใน-นอกโลก VS ภัยธรรมชาติ และupdate พายุสุริยะ

กำลังหาข้อมูลแบบละเอียดอยู่ แต่ที่รู้คือ วงโคจรของเจ้าตัวนี้คำนวณผิด

 

Daily Sun: 23 Nov 11 <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td></td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td></td> </tr> </tbody></table> Sunspot 1356 has a "beta-gamma" magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

CHANCE OF FLARES: Earth-facing sunspot 1356 has developed a "beta-gamma" magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares. NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% chance of such an eruption during the next 24 hours. Solar flare alerts: text, phone.

โอกาสที่จะเกิด flare: จุดดับ 1356 กำลังหันมายังโลกและพัฒนาเป็น สนามแม่เหล็กแบบ "beta-gamma" นั่นหมายถึงว่ามันจะสามารถทำให้เกิด M-Class solar flare ได้ และ NOAA ได้พยาการณ์ว่าประมาณ 30% ที่มีโอกาสเกิดการระเบิดใน 24 ชั่วโมงข้างหน้า

SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids

 

ERUPTION: A magnetic filament wrapping around the sun's NW limb rose up and erupted today. Click on the arrow to play the movie recorded by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:​

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The eruption hurled a cloud of plasma (a "CME") into space but not toward Earth. Because of the blast site's high-northern location on the sun, the cloud flew up and out of the plane of the solar system; no planets will be affected.​

 

Actual Race to Mars Could Begin Saturday


Published November 23, 2011
| FoxNews.com

• 
  NASA will launch its newest Mars lander on Saturday; Russia hopes to salvage its mission to Mars moon Phobos as well. Is a race to Mars about to begin?

It’s a grueling marathon, only this time the finish line is the Red Planet -- and the race takes place at 70,000 miles per hour.
NASA’s newest Mars rover is scheduled for launch Saturday; Curiosity should arrive at the Red Planet's mineral-rich Gale Crater next August, after a 354-million-mile, 8.5-month voyage aboard an Atlas V rocket. Meanwhile, the European Space Agency has received the first signal from an unmanned Russian spacecraft bound for a moon of Mars since it was stuck in Earth's orbit two weeks ago, officials said Wednesday -- raising hope that mission might be saved.
<dl id="related-media" class="related-mod"><dt>Related Stories</dt><dd>Contact Made With Missing Russian Mars Probe</dd><dd>NASA to Launch Mars Rover 'Dream Machine' This Week</dd><dd>Failed Russian Mars Probe Could Crash to Earth in January</dd><dd>Russia Fights to Prevent 18th Failed Mars Mission</dd></dl> Related Slideshow


Mars Rover Curiosity: The Red Planet's Next Explorer
After nearly a decade of planning, cost overruns and delays, NASA is finally set to launch what scientists consider the most technically capable rover ever sent to another planet.


ESA spokesman Bernhard von Weyhe said contact with Russia's Phobos-Grunt probe could be the first step in restabilizing the mission. If successful, Phobos-Grunt could leave Earth's orbit at more or less the same time as its American counterpart.
It's a head-to-head race begun not with a pistol but a rocket launch. So who will reach Mars first?
It's difficult to say, according to theoretical physicist Michio Kaku, who noted that both probes will be traveling at roughly the same speed over the course.
But it's a treacherous journey to Mars: Anything could happen, and the road is littered with failure. In all, more than three dozen missions have aimed over the decades at the most Earth-like planet known, and fewer than half have succeeded. Of this flotilla, only one lander is still working on the dry, barren, cold surface -- U.S. rover Opportunity -- and only three craft are still observing the planet from orbit.
"Mars is difficult, and so many things have to go right for a mission to work," said Michael Meyer, lead scientist for NASA's Mars exploration program.
NASA faces more anxiety than usual, however. Curiosity holds 10.6 pounds of plutonium, more than enough to power the rover on the Martian surface for two years. A nuclear generator won out over solar energy because it allows for a bigger workload and more flexibility. The plutonium is encased in several protective layers in case of a launch accident.
A huge crowd -- 13,500 invited guests -- is expected for Curiosity's Thanksgiving weekend send-off.
The real challenge will be for the Russians. The Phobos-Grunt Mars probe may end up as the 18th in a long string of unsuccessful Russian missions to the Red Planet since 1960.
"Mars has always been an inhospitable planet for Russia. The United States has had much more success there," said Maxim Martynov, the project's chief designer at NPO Lavochkin, the major Russian aerospace company that made the Phobos-Grunt.
"We haven't had a successful interplanetary expedition for over 15 years. In that time, the people, the technology, everything has changed. It's all new for us, in many ways we are working from scratch," said lead scientist Alexander Zakharov.
Despite this latest glimmer of hope, it looks as if history may repeat itself, admitted Roscosmos depty head Vitaly Davydov.
“There is little chance that we will be able to achieve this mission,” he said on Tuesday. “We need to be realists. Since we could not establish contact for so long, the chances to carry out this expedition right now are very slim.” The U.S. may win the race by default, in other words, though that conclusion is a costly loss for science.
Davydov, said Tuesday that space experts will keep trying until the end of the month to fix the probe and steer it to its designated flight path.
If they fail, the craft could plummet to Earth some time between late December and late February, he warned, adding that the site of the crash cannot be established more than a day in advance.
If Phobos-Grunt eventually crashes back to Earth, its cargo may become a problem: The craft carries a full payload of toxic hydrazine and nitrogen tetroxide fuel and small cargo of radioactive cobalt-57.
It is unclear how much of it will survive the fiery plunge through the atmosphere.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.



Read more: Actual Race To Mars Could Begin Saturday | Fox News

 

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QUIET THANKSGIVING: Despite a large number of sunspots on the Earthside of the sun, solar activity is very low today. Not one of the sunspots is actively flaring. The forecast calls for a quiet thanksgiving.


วันแต้งส์กิฟวิ่งเงียบๆ (วันขอบคุณพระเจ้าที่ให้ข้าวปลาอาหารมา) - ถึงแม้ด้านที่หันมายังโลก ดวงอาทิตย์จะมีกลุ่มจุดดับขนาดใหญ่แต่มีปฏิกิริยาต่ำ ไม่มีสักจุดดับเดียวที่จะทำให้เกิด flare การพยากรณ์นี้เรียกว่า วันแต้งกิ๊ฟวิ่งที่เงียบ :boo:
​

 

BLACK FRIDAY SOLAR ECLIPSE: Earlier today, Nov. 25th, the new Moon passed in front of the sun, slightly off-center, producing a partial solar eclipse visible from Antarctica, Tasmania, and parts of South Africa and New Zealand. Mike Nicholson photographed the event about two minutes before sunset from Otaki Beach, NZ:​

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"We were experiencing gale force Sou'westerlies when I took the picture," says Nicholson. "Low clouds plus flying salt and sand provided a natural filter to reduce the glare of the sun."​

Maximum coverage occurred about 100 miles off the coast of Antarctica where the sun turned into a slender 9% crescent. Will any pictures be submitted from that remote location? Stay tuned.​

 

RADIATION STORM AND CME ALERT: A solar radiation storm is in progress around Earth. At the moment, the storm is classified as minor, which means it has little effect on Earth other than to disturb HF radio transmissions at high latitudes. Energetic protons, which make up the bulk of the storm, were accelerated in our direction earlier today by shock waves in a CME racing away from the sun at about 1000 km/s (2.2 million mph). According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME itself will reach Earth on Nov. 28th around 14:23 UT (+/- 7 hours). Click to view an animated forecast track:

RADIATION STORM AND CME ALERT: พายุรังสีจาดดวงอาทิตย์ กำลังเดินทางมายังโลก ณ ขณะนี้ พายุนี้ถือว่ายังเล็กน้อย หมายความว่าจะมีผลไม่มากต่อโลก มากไปกว่ามากวนการสื่อสารระบบวิทยุ คลื่นความถี่สูง HF radio. โปรตรอนที่มีพลังงานมาก ซึ่งทำให้เกิดพายุขนาดใหญ่ กำลังถูกเร่งความเร็วเข้ามายังแนวของโลกเราก่อนหน้านี้ในวันนี้ โดย shock wave ที่มีอยู่ใน CME พุ่งออกมาจากดวงอาทิตย์ ประมาณ 1,000 กิโลเมตรต่อวินาที (หรือ 2.2 ล้านเมตรต่อชั่วโมง). อ้างถึงการพยากรณ์ของนาซ่า ศูนย์พยากรณ์อากาศ Goddard Space CME จะมาถึงโลกในวันจันทร์ที่ 28 ประมาณ 14.23 UT (ประมาณ สามทุ่มครึ่งคืนวันจันทร์ +-7 ก็คือ ประมาณ ระยะคือ บ่ายสองวันจันทร์-ตีสี่เช้าวันอังคาร)

​

​

The cloud could triggger geomagnetic storms when it arrives on Monday. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras. Aurora alerts: text, phone.

SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids

Bright CME / S1 Minor Radiation Storm:
Early this morning on Saturday, a solar filament exploded in the northwest quadrant, causing a bright Coronal Mass Ejection. The image below is captured by Lasco C2 and in the new STEREO Ahead COR2 images, it does appear that most of the explosion was directed to the west and not towards Earth. The proton levels reached the S1 Minor Radiation Storm threshold and currently remain above that level.
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zz1qcobduVI"]Filament Eruption + CME (Nov 26, 2011) - YouTube[/ame]



EXTENDED WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 332
Valid From: 2011 Nov 26 1120 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2011 Nov 27 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

CME (Saturday) - SDO

Solar Update:
Solar activity remained low on Saturday, with only minor C-Class activity taking place. A solar filament explosion near Sunspot 1353 produced a bright Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), however it appears that most of the expanding cloud will miss Earth. Only a glancing blow will be possible within 72 hours.

ปฏิกิริยาพระอาทิตย์ ยังคงน้อยอยู่เมื่อวันเสาร์ที่ผ่านมา (26) แค่มี C-class เล็กๆ. มีฟีลาเม้นท์ระเบิดออกมาใกล้กับจุดดับ 1353 ทำให้เกิด CME สว่างจ้า อย่างไรก็ตามมันราวกับว่าวงที่ขยายจะไม่โดนโลก แค่จะทำให้ เกิดพัดผ่านอย่างรวดเร็วจะประมาณการเกิดได้ในระยะเวลา 72 ชั่วโมง

http://www.solarham.com/

 

Daily Sun: 26 Nov 11 <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td></td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td></td> </tr> </tbody></table> Sunspot 1358 is growing rapidly and could soon pose a threat for M-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI

จุดดับ 1358 กำลังโตขึ้นอย่างรวดเร็ว คาดว่าจะทำให้เกิด M-Class flares ได้

November 26, 2011

Diagram of the solar flare activity

X-ray emission of the Sun from 25.11.2011 to 26.11.2011 (GOES-15)


Solar flares today

Today, 3 solar flares were observed:

<table class="table_4" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="750"> <tbody><tr> <th width="1%"> </th> <th align="left" width="1%"> </th> <th>Active region</th> <th>Begin, UT</th> <th>Max, UT</th> <th>End, UT</th> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C1.2</td> <td class="center">1353</td> <td class="center">06:09:00</td> <td class="center">07:10:00</td> <td class="center">07:56:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C1.5</td> <td class="center">1357</td> <td class="center">08:00:00</td> <td class="center">08:24:00</td> <td class="center">08:44:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C1.0</td> <td class="center">1358</td> <td class="center">17:12:00</td> <td class="center">17:19:00</td> <td class="center">17:34:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
Solar flares yesterday

Yesterday, 3 solar flares were observed:

<table class="table_4" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="750"><tbody><tr> <th width="1%"> </th> <th align="left" width="1%"> </th> <th>Active region</th> <th>Begin, UT</th> <th>Max, UT</th> <th>End, UT</th> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C3.3</td> <td class="center">1359</td> <td class="center">03:38:00</td> <td class="center">03:45:00</td> <td class="center">03:49:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C1.1</td> <td class="center">1356</td> <td class="center">17:14:00</td> <td class="center">17:20:00</td> <td class="center">17:25:00</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="6" style="height:8px;">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap"></td> <td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">Flare of class C2.4</td> <td class="center">1359</td> <td class="center">21:49:00</td> <td class="center">21:58:00</td> <td class="center">22:08:00</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

SUNSET CONJUNCTION: Last night, the slender crescent Moon passed by Venus in the fading glow of sunset. "Crystal clear skies offered the perfect view of the pair setting over this hillside in western Colorado," says Thad V'Soske, who captured the scene using a Canon 30D digital camera:​

​

The Moon is moving away from Venus now--but it will be back. On Dec. 26th, the crescent Moon and Venus will reprise their close encounter for a lovely night-after-Christmas sky show. Browse the links below for a preview.​

 

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlSHR6MYAaY"]Full Halo CME + Proton Flare / Solar Watch Nov 27, 2011 - YouTube[/ame]
Uploader Comments (SolarWatcher)

• How can we predict how long it will take to get here?How do we see it then not feel it until days later?How fast does the film of the CME travel back to earth compared to the CME?Surely not light speed?How close are the satellites to the sun???a mindfuck indeed when you actually think about it....This is one bizarre world we live in if you take a step back and just look at it.
  
  
  PlanetaryMATE 15 hours ago
  
• @PlanetaryMATE it usually takes 2-3 days for a CME to travel the 93 million miles to the earth, the more impulsive the CME the faster its speed... this eruption was a strong one so it should get here around 2 days time.
  
  
  SolarWatcher 15 hours ago
  
• at [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlSHR6MYAaY&feature=player_embedded#"]2:00[/ame] in you refer to the inaccuracy of the second animation and that you have discontinued use of this service. As I have followed your very informative and highly accurate service now for a long period of time I would like to point out that several videos ago you made the same reference about the inaccuracy of the same service and that you had discontinued using it but it seems you have not. I do understand the relevance of the information you are showing. thanks for another great vid.
  
  
  xorxand1001 19 hours ago
  
• @xorxand1001 both services contradict each other, however expect them to change the data shortly ... the reason i showed both service is because of the implications of a direct hit compared to a complete miss.
  if this does hit the earth it would cause a significant geomagnetic storm, showing both animations was important to keep everyone informed
  
  
  SolarWatcher 19 hours ago 5
  
• Exactly how I seen it go down....It will be better if the planetary field would Bz south when it arrives...I'm thinking Kp=5 storm to be safe...Great post...hope you're feeling better...I've been alittle sickly myself lately...cold....Peace!
  
  
  Skyywatcher88 20 hours ago
  
• @Skyywatcher88 Kp7 if it hits, i think it might just miss us, we will soon find out ... get better soon my friend
  
  
  SolarWatcher 19 hours ago
  

 

RADIATION STORM AND CME ALERT: พายุ รังสีจาดดวงอาทิตย์ กำลังเดินทางมายังโลก ณ ขณะนี้ พายุนี้ถือว่ายังเล็กน้อย หมายความว่าจะมีผลไม่มากต่อโลก มากไปกว่ามากวนการสื่อสารระบบวิทยุ คลื่นความถี่สูง HF radio. โปรตรอนที่มีพลังงานมาก ซึ่งทำให้เกิดพายุขนาดใหญ่ กำลังถูกเร่งความเร็วเข้ามายังแนวของโลกเราก่อนหน้านี้ในวันนี้ โดย shock wave ที่มีอยู่ใน CME พุ่งออกมาจากดวงอาทิตย์ ประมาณ 1,000 กิโลเมตรต่อวินาที (หรือ 2.2 ล้านเมตรต่อชั่วโมง). อ้างถึงการพยากรณ์ของนาซ่า ศูนย์พยากรณ์อากาศ Goddard Space CME จะมาถึงโลกในวันจันทร์ที่ 28 ประมาณ 14.23 UT (ประมาณ สามทุ่มครึ่งคืนวันจันทร์ +-7 ก็คือ ประมาณ ระยะคือ บ่ายสองวันจันทร์-ตีสี่เช้าวันอังคาร)

 

RADIATION STORM AND CME ALERT: A solar radiation storm is in progress around Earth. At the moment, the storm is classified as minor, which means it has little effect on our planet other than to disturb HF radio transmissions at high latitudes. Bigger effects, however, may be in the offing. The same explosion on Nov. 26th that caused the radiation storm also hurled a CME into space at about 930 km/s (2 million mph). According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will reach Earth on Nov. 28th at 17:21 UT (+/- 7 hours). Click to view an animated forecast track:

update ใหม่ CME จะมาถึงโลกวันที่ 28 พฤศจิกายน เวลา 17.21 UT
(เที่ยงคืนครึ่ง คืนวันจันทร์ที่ 28 เช้าวันเสาร์ที่ 29) +-7 = (ช่วงเวลา +- 17.21น.วันจันทร์ที่ 28 - 7.21น.เช้าวันอังคารที่ 29)

SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids

 

November 28, 2011
<table style="margin-bottom:5px;display:table" height="58" width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr style="text-align:center" align="center"><td style="background-color:#000066;font-size:20pt;font-family:Times New Roman,Times;color:rgb(242,238,121);text-align:center" rowspan="1" colspan="1" width="99%" align="center" bgcolor="#000066"> BREAKING NEWS: Pope Benedict XVI Gives Stinging Directive to Global Warming Advocates
</td></tr><tr><td style="text-align:left;font-size:12pt;font-family:Times New Roman,Times;color:rgb(0,0,0)" rowspan="1" colspan="2" align="left">by Mitch Battros - Earth Changes Media


Pope Benedict XVI expressed the hope that "all members of the international community might reach agreement on a responsible and credible response, to this disturbing and complex phenomenon" as it relates to climate change.

​

This is being seen as a harsh slap-down to global warming enthusiasts who openly deny the influential affect of the Sun-Earth connection. Pope Benedict XVI used carefully selected words which reflect the lies, disinformation, and manipulation of agenda driven politics which sadly involves the science community.

The words "responsible, credible, complex and disturbing" tell of the deep concern the Vatican displays over the very 'disturbing, irresponsible, non-credible, and complex' realities regarding the true concern of warming and cooling trends.

​

But there's more - lots more of what the Vatican (and science community) has been holding back. It has to do with what the Vatican is calling 'Chromodynamics' and the science community calls 'Cryptochromes'.

You simply won't believe what I have stumbled across. I haven't been this excited (no, check that) stimulated since my research of "Solar Rain" and discovering my published "Equation" which is now used by most scientific agencies.

Watch for my report coming tomorrow ...............
</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

CME IMPACT: As predicted by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, a coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field at approximately 2145 UT on Nov. 28th. The impact was weaker than expected, but it still produced bright auroras around the Arctic Circle:​

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"The CME that hit Earth gave us some nice, colourful and easy-moving auroras," says photographer Antti Pietikäinen of Muonio, Lapland, Finland, who enjoyed the show with his two dogs.​